Greek PSI patience not yet worn out.

Tomorrow! Tomorrow! I love ya, tomorrow! You’re always a day away” (Annie).So the seemingly interminable wait for the Greek PSI announcement continues but with the FX market traveling with eternal optimism. Delays to a PSI announcement may be a smokescreen for broader difficulties in negotiations between the Greek government and EU and IMF officials on the commitments required in order to finalize the entire second bail-out package. EU officials meet again on Monday and where Greece tops the agenda

We look to trade any PSI announcement euphoria.

We continue to expect any euphoria on a PSI announcement to produce a knee-jerk spike higher in EURUSD and which may yet take out the 1.3240-50 area above which we may witness a bigger capitulation by euro shorts. Yet we look to fade any such spike and expect that tensions over whether PSI will likely entail a coercive deal involving CDS triggers (assuming significant holdouts) and over whether the whole package will slot into place well in time for the March 20 bond-redemption deadline, to harm euro sentiment once more.

ECB meeting also poses downside euro risk.

Another risk factor for the euro in the week ahead is Thursday’s ECB Council meeting. A rate cut is by no means out of the question even though our economists regard March as more likely (tying in with the next formal economic forecasting round). A dovish press conference could nevertheless weigh. Also of interest as we head towards the end-Feb. next 3yr. LTRO will be hard news on the new collateral requirements of the various national central banks.

BOJ intervention risk from Y75.57 is high, but further out we remain yen bulls.

We are very much on guard for another burst of FX intervention in coming days and believe this could happen on any breach of the Y75.57 prior low. Assuming intervention is sterilised as seems likely, JPY weakness is likely to prove ephemeral.

BoE QE shouldn’t hurt GBP, Swiss CPI to strengthen 1.20 EURCHF floor.

The Bank of England is likely to deliver another dose of QE on Thursday (we expect £75bn) but don’t believe GBP will come to any harm as result. Finally, news of deepening deflation in next Friday’s Swiss CPI release can but harden SNB resolve to preserve the integrity of the 1.2000 EURCHF floor.

USD-INR FEB 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week USD/INR opened at 49.60 & went up to 50.60 to mark the high of the week. It then kept on declining till 48.92 to register the low of the week & finally closed at 48.955.For the week we see initial support at 48.35-48.50 & initial resistance at 49.25-49.40. The cross above 49.40 will lead to 50.05-50.20(high probable case).In the event of breach below 48.35 will head for the 47.90-48.05(low probable case). Our bias is positive & we see more probability of it moving north but EURO ZONE can be a dominant factor. In the event of it moving down, eventually it will move up. However global currency market is likely to exhibit heightened volatility & in this dynamic environment, it will be prudent to take this as rough skeleton & we will refine as well as retune final target with the additional data on daily basis. Swing trader should go long near of 48.35 with the stop of 47.85 for the  target of 50.20 & higher.Once the trade runs in profit please trail the stop to lock in the profit. Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price top/bottom formation while entering the trade is vital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.

EURO-USD:-Last week EUR/USD opened at 1.3218 & went up to register the high at 1.3232. It then went down to register the low of the week at 1.3026 & finally closed at 1.3145.For the coming week we see 1.3075-1.3100 as initial support zone & 1.3200-1.3225 as initial resistance. Breach of 1.3075 will lead to head towards 1.2925-1.2950(low probable) & a cross above 1.3225 will lead to 1.3400-1.3425.Traders must bear in mind that Monday’s Euro-zone meet can have catastrophic impact.  Swing traders should go long near 1.3080 with the stop of 1.3050or  on cross above 1.3225 for the target of 1.3425 & above.However traders must guard themselves against volatile movements generated by the many events scheduled on next week. Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price bottom formation while entering the trade is vital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.

EURO-INR FEB 2012 MCX-SXFUTURE:-Last week it opened at 65.4025 & went up to register the high of 66.0475. It then kept on declining to mark the low at 64.415 & finally closed at 64.4250. For the coming week we see 64.00-64.20 as support, resistance at 65.10-65.30 & cross above of 65.30 will lead to retest of 65.80-66.00.  In our view aggressive swing trader should go long around 64.10 with the stop of 63.90 for the target of 65.10 & above.Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.

GBP-USD: -Last week it opened at 1.5722 & went down to 1.5654 to mark the low of week. It then kept on rising for the rest of the week till 1.5883 to register the high of week & finally closed at 1.5807. For the week we see 1.5880-1.5900 as resistance & 1.5750-1.5770 as support. Breach below 1.5750 will lead to 1.5650-1.5670(low probable) & cross above 1.5900 will lead to 1.6020-1.6050(high probable). In our view aggressive swing trader should go long around  1.5770 with the stop of 1.5650 for the target of 1.6020 &1.6050.

GBP-INR FEB 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it opened at 77.50 & this itself was the low of the week. It then relentlessly kept on rising to mark the high of the week at 78.7775 & finally closed at 77.5350. We are of the view that it has good support at 77.00-77.10 & resistance at 78.65-78.75. In our view aggressive swing trader should  go long around 77.10 with the stop of 76.90  for the target of 78.65 -78.75.  Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded . Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.

USD-JPY:-Last week it opened at 76.72 & went down to mark the low of week at 76.028.It then kept on rising to mark the high of week at 76.78 & finally closed at 76.548.For the coming week we see 76.00-76.10 as support   & 76.60-76.70 as resistance. Cross above 76.70 will lead to test 77.40-77.50 resistance zone. We are of the view that it has terminated a large degree downside pattern at 76.028.We are expecting violent rise as post pattern behaviour & may be we see during the coming week. In our view aggressive swing trader should  go long around 76.40   with the stop of 76.15  for the target of 77.40 & above. Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded . Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.

JPY-INR FEB 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE:-Last week it opened at 64.55 & went up to mark the high of the week at 65.08. It then kept on declining to mark the low of the week at 64.16 & finally closed at 64.2025.In our view there is initial resistance at 64.90-65.00 & support at 63.90-64.00.Breach of 63.90 will lead to test the support zone of 61.90-62.00. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short around 64.90with the stop of 65.15  or on breach of 63.90 for the target of 62.00.

DOLLAR INDEX:-Last week it opened at 78.96 & went up to 79.665 to mark the high of the week.  It then fallen to 78.745 to mark the low of the week & finally closed at 79.057.In our view normally it should find resistance at 79.50-79.60 & support at 78.75-78.85 & breach of 78.75 will lead to 76.80-76.90.

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SPECIAL NOTE: -We would earnestly request the readers to read carefully the qualifying conditions for the call to be activated. Without meeting the qualifier conditions call do not get activated & simply cursory look at chart & arrow may lead to erroneous call activation & financial losses.

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