WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK (23-01-12 TO 27-01-12)

GOLD:- Last week gold made the low of 1631.30 & high of 1670.09 against our estimate of 1604 & 1662 respectively. Now we see high probability for bullish trend compared to bearish. For the coming week we see 1642-11670 as the trading range &1595-1605 as support. On the upside there are resistances at 1715-1725 & 1750-1760. We recommend going long gold on cross above 1670 with the stop of 1655 for the target of 1715 & 1750. In rupee terms buy FEB 2012 FUT MCX on cross above 27575 with the stop of 27300 for the targets of 27925 & 28200.


SILVER:- Last week silver made the high of 32.369 &  low of 29.453 against the estimation of 31.50 & 28.55 respectively. Last week it has displayed distinctly bullish trend. For the coming week we see 31.60-32.40 as the trading range & 30.30-30.70 as the support. On the upside there are resistances at 33.25-33.65 & 34.15-34.55. We recommend going long on cross above 31.60 with the stop placed at 31.40 for the target of 33.25 & 34.15. In rupee terms buy MARCH 2012 MCX FUTURE around 55100 with the stop of 54800 for the targets of 57400 & 58100.

CRUDE:-Last week it made the high of 102.06 & low of 98.02 against our estimate of 102.80 & 99.00 respectively. For the coming week we see 97.90-99.30 as the trading range, resistance at 100.35-100.85 & support at 94.80-95.30.We are bearish on it. Breach of 94.80 will lead to retest of 93.00-93.50. We recommend going short around 99.30 with the stop of 99.80 or on breach of 97.90 for the target of 95.30 & lower at 93.50. In rupee terms sell around 5030 with the stop of 5080 for the targets of 4925 & 4770 in FEB 2012 FUT MCX.


NATURALGAS:- Natural gas made the high of 2587 & low of 2283 against the estimation of 2600 & 2400. The low formed was much below our expectation as it opened downside a further extension. For the coming week we see 2475-2500 as the resistance & initial support at 2275-2300 & breach of this will lead to 2150-2175.We recommend selling around 2450 with the stop of 2500n breach of 2275  for the target of 2175 & lower. In rupee terms sell short around 123 with the stop of 125 or on breach of 116 for the targets of 110 for JAN 2012 FUT MCX?


COPPER:-Last week copper made the high of 8417.50 & low of 7909.50 against the estimation of 8300 & 7800.It has shown distinct bullish tone in line with our expectation. For the coming week we see initially consolidation in the 8100-8425 range & in the second half to head for the 8650-8700 range. We recommend going long around 8150 with the stop of 8050 for the targets of 8425 & 8700. In rupee terms buy around 414 with the stop of 410 for the target of 430 & 438 in FEB 2012 FUT MCX.


LEAD:- Last week it made the high of 2193.50 & low of 2002 against the estimation of 2100 & 1980 respectively. For the coming week we see initial resistance at 2190-2200 & support at 2120-2130.The cross above 2200 will lead to retest of 2260-2270. We recommend going long around 2140 with the stop of 2120 for the targets of 2190 & 2260. In rupee terms go long around 105.20 with the stop of 103.5 for the targets of 106.5 & 109.50 in the JAN 2012 MCX FUT.

NICKEL:- Nickel has made the high of 20635 & low of 19176 against the estimate of 20500 & 19200 respectively. Our target of 20500 is achieved & it has shown further bullishness. For the week we see initial support at 20100-20200 & resistance at 21300-21400.The cross above 21400 will  lead to 21700-21700.We recommend a buy around 20200 with the stop of 20000  for the target of 21300 & 21700.In rupee terms buy below 1020 with the stop 1005 for the target of 1057 & 1068 in JAN 2012 FUT MCX .



 

ZINC:-  ZINC has made the low of 1930 & high of 2042.75 against 1920 & 2060 respectively. It has shown strong bullish trend.   For the week we see support at 1950-1970 & initial resistance at 2100-2120 & cross above of this support will lead to test the higher resistance at 2210-2230.We recommend going long below 1990 with the stop of 1940 for the target of 2100 & 2210.  In rupee terms buy below 100.50 with the stop of 99.50 for the target of 103.75 &105.60 for JAN 2011 FUT AT MCX.

ALUMINIUM:-Last week it made the low of 2132.25 & high of 2237.75 against the estimate of 2110  & 2210.For the week we see support at 2140-2160 & initial resistance at 2320-2340.A cross above 2340 will lead to 2420-2440.   We recommend going long at 2180 with the stop of 2130 for the target of 2320 & 2420 in next 2-3 weeks. In rupee terms buy around 109 with the stop of 108 for the target of 113.00 & higher for JAN 2011 FUT MCX.



 

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