DAILY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

  • Manufacturing in US expands at fastest pace in six months bolstered by gains in production and orders.       The ISM index climbs to 53.9 last month from 52.7 in Nov.
  • Mortgage rates near record low helps the housing industry recovers from the recession. Construction spending in US climbs 1.2% against a forecast of 0.5%.
  • US Stocks open higher following yesterday’s European rally.
  • EFSF to sell Euro 3 bn three year bond on Thursday.
  • ECB back in the bond market buying Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds.
  • Commodities higher as USD weaken. Crude up 3.7%, Gold up 2.33%

USD-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE:- Yesterday it opened at 53.5525 & made the low of the day  at 53.4325. It had then risen to 53.5950 to mark as high of the day & finally closed at 53.52.Actually the flows have reduced very much & under the influence of low liquidity it has become hedger’s market. For the day we see initial support at 53.38-53.43 & resistance at 53.65-53.70 & this is likely to be trading range of the day. Breach of the support at 53.38 may lead to retest of 53.15-53.20.Similarly cross above of 53.72 may lead to retest of 53.85-53.90. Swing trader should go long around  53.45  with the stop of 53.35 for the target of 53.65 & 53.85  . Kindly reduce the quantum of lot as stoploss used are wide due to volatility. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior during the entry of trade  is vital for profitability of trade  & this can be done at that moment of time only.

    

EURO-USD:- Yesterday it opened at 1.2933 & this itself was the low of the day. It had then risen to 1.3077 to mark as the high of the day & finally closed at 1.3048. For the day we see initial support at 1.2990-1.3010 & resistance at 1.3080-1.3100.The breach 1.2990 will lead to retest of the 1.2915-1.2935(less likely).Similarly cross above of 1.3100 will lead retest of 1.3190-1.3210, however it is more likely in our view.   Swing trader should go long  around 1.3010  with the stop of 1.2985 for the target of 1.3100 & 1.3210 . Traders discretion & judgment of price rally top/price decline bottom while entering trade,  is vital for profitability of trade  & this can be done at that moment of time only. 

         

EURO-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE :-  Yesterday it opened at 69.42 & made the low of the day at 69.31 It then rose to 69.9825 to mark as high of the day & finally closed at 69.7925. For the day we see initial support at 69.30-69.40 & resistance at 69.90-70.00 .The breach of 69.30 will lead to retest of 68.60-68.70.   In our view aggressive  swing trader should go short around   69.80  with the stop of 70.00  for the target of 69.40& 68.60 . Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any higher target can also be taken advantage of it.

 

GBPINR JAN 2012 MCX FUTURE :- For the day we see initial support at 83.20-83.30 & resistance at 83.70-83.80 and breach of 83.20 will lead to retest of 82.70-82.80.  In our view traders should go short around  83.65 with the stop of 83.80 for the target of 83.30 & 82.80 .                   

      

JPYINR JAN 2012 MCX FUTURE :-   For the day we see  support at 69.40-69.50 & resistance at 70.30-70.40.   In our view traders should go long near 69.55   with the stop of 69.35  for the target range of  70.25-70.30 and higher.

   

PIVOTPOINT-TABLE

Index/Stock

S3

S2

S1

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

53.2808

53.3567

53.4383

53.5142

53.5958

53.6717

53.7533

EUR

1.2818

1.2875

1.2962

1.3019

1.3106

1.3163

1.3250

EURINR

68.7350

69.0225

69.4075

69.6950

70.0800

70.3675

70.7525

GBP

1.5376

1.5439

1.5543

1.5606

1.5710

1.5773

1.5877

GBPINR

82.3167

82.6183

83.0467

83.3483

83.7767

84.0783

84.5067

JPY

76.2233

76.4247

76.5673

76.7687

76.9113

77.1127

77.2553

JPYINR

69.1950

69.3400

69.5125

69.6575

69.8300

69.9750

70.1475

DOLLAR INDEX

79.3580

79.5940

79.7530

79.9890

80.1480

80.3840

80.5430

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR                         

country

date

name

consensus

previous

Volatility

European Monetary Union

20120104 08:58:00

Purchasing Manager Index Services

48.3

47.5

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

M4 Money Supply (MoM)

 

-0.30%

1

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

M4 Money Supply (YoY)

 

-2.70%

1

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

Mortgage Approvals

52.800K

52.743K

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

Consumer Credit

£0.300B

£0.049B

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)

£0.9B

£1.3B

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

PMI Construction

52

52.3

2

European Monetary Union

20120104 10:00:00

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

2.80%

3.00%

2

United States

20120104 12:00:00

MBA Mortgage Applications

 

 

1

United States

20120104 15:00:00

Factory Orders (MoM)

2.00%

-0.40%

2

United States

20120104 21:00:00

Total Vehicle Sales

13.50M

13.63M

1

Japan

20120104 23:50:00

Monetary Base (YoY)

 

19.50%

1

European Monetary Union

20120104 08:58:00

Purchasing Manager Index Services

48.3

47.5

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

M4 Money Supply (MoM)

 

-0.30%

1



SPECIAL NOTE:- We would earnestly request the readers to read carefully the qualifying conditions for the call to be activated. Without meeting the qualifier conditions call do not get activated & simply cursory look at chart & arrow may lead to erroneous call activation & financial losses.

 

THIS IS THE PORTRAY OF GENERAL BROADER MARKET VIEW WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC STRATEGY & SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUIED AS SPECIFIC CALLS.FOR THE MORE POIGNANT VIEW ON MARKET,WINNING STRATEGY & PIN POINT TIMELY PRICE LEVEL CALLS, CONTACT US  TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OUR PREMIUM SERVICES.      

     

WRITER WELCOMES ANY SUGGESTIONS,FEEDBACK OR QUERY AT INFO@JKDVIEWPOINT.COM.  

 

What did you think of this article?




Trackbacks
  • No trackbacks exist for this post.
Comments
  • No comments exist for this post.
Leave a comment

Submitted comments are subject to moderation before being displayed.

 Name

 Email (will not be published)

 Website

Your comment is 0 characters limited to 3000 characters.