DAILY CURRENCY OUTLOOK
- Manufacturing in US expands at fastest pace in six months bolstered by gains in production and orders. The ISM index climbs to 53.9 last month from 52.7 in Nov.
- Mortgage rates near record low helps the housing industry recovers from the recession. Construction spending in US climbs 1.2% against a forecast of 0.5%.
- US Stocks open higher following yesterday’s European rally.
- EFSF to sell Euro 3 bn three year bond on Thursday.
- ECB back in the bond market buying Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds.
- Commodities higher as USD weaken. Crude up 3.7%, Gold up 2.33%
USD-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE:- Yesterday it opened at 53.5525 & made the low of the day at 53.4325. It had then risen to 53.5950 to mark as high of the day & finally closed at 53.52.Actually the flows have reduced very much & under the influence of low liquidity it has become hedger’s market. For the day we see initial support at 53.38-53.43 & resistance at 53.65-53.70 & this is likely to be trading range of the day. Breach of the support at 53.38 may lead to retest of 53.15-53.20.Similarly cross above of 53.72 may lead to retest of 53.85-53.90. Swing trader should go long around 53.45 with the stop of 53.35 for the target of 53.65 & 53.85 . Kindly reduce the quantum of lot as stoploss used are wide due to volatility. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior during the entry of trade is vital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.
EURO-USD:- Yesterday it opened at 1.2933 & this itself was the low of the day. It had then risen to 1.3077 to mark as the high of the day & finally closed at 1.3048. For the day we see initial support at 1.2990-1.3010 & resistance at 1.3080-1.3100.The breach 1.2990 will lead to retest of the 1.2915-1.2935(less likely).Similarly cross above of 1.3100 will lead retest of 1.3190-1.3210, however it is more likely in our view. Swing trader should go long around 1.3010 with the stop of 1.2985 for the target of 1.3100 & 1.3210 . Traders discretion & judgment of price rally top/price decline bottom while entering trade, is vital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.
EURO-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE :- Yesterday it opened at 69.42 & made the low of the day at 69.31 It then rose to 69.9825 to mark as high of the day & finally closed at 69.7925. For the day we see initial support at 69.30-69.40 & resistance at 69.90-70.00 .The breach of 69.30 will lead to retest of 68.60-68.70. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short around 69.80 with the stop of 70.00 for the target of 69.40& 68.60 . Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any higher target can also be taken advantage of it.
GBPINR JAN 2012 MCX FUTURE :- For the day we see initial support at 83.20-83.30 & resistance at 83.70-83.80 and breach of 83.20 will lead to retest of 82.70-82.80. In our view traders should go short around 83.65 with the stop of 83.80 for the target of 83.30 & 82.80 .
JPYINR JAN 2012 MCX FUTURE :- For the day we see support at 69.40-69.50 & resistance at 70.30-70.40. In our view traders should go long near 69.55 with the stop of 69.35 for the target range of 70.25-70.30 and higher.
PIVOTPOINT-TABLE
| Index/Stock | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| USDINR | 53.2808 | 53.3567 | 53.4383 | 53.5142 | 53.5958 | 53.6717 | 53.7533 |
| EUR | 1.2818 | 1.2875 | 1.2962 | 1.3019 | 1.3106 | 1.3163 | 1.3250 |
| EURINR | 68.7350 | 69.0225 | 69.4075 | 69.6950 | 70.0800 | 70.3675 | 70.7525 |
| GBP | 1.5376 | 1.5439 | 1.5543 | 1.5606 | 1.5710 | 1.5773 | 1.5877 |
| GBPINR | 82.3167 | 82.6183 | 83.0467 | 83.3483 | 83.7767 | 84.0783 | 84.5067 |
| JPY | 76.2233 | 76.4247 | 76.5673 | 76.7687 | 76.9113 | 77.1127 | 77.2553 |
| JPYINR | 69.1950 | 69.3400 | 69.5125 | 69.6575 | 69.8300 | 69.9750 | 70.1475 |
| DOLLAR INDEX | 79.3580 | 79.5940 | 79.7530 | 79.9890 | 80.1480 | 80.3840 | 80.5430 |
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
| country | date | name | consensus | previous | Volatility |
| European Monetary Union | 20120104 08:58:00 | Purchasing Manager Index Services | 48.3 | 47.5 | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | M4 Money Supply (MoM) |
| -0.30% | 1 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | M4 Money Supply (YoY) |
| -2.70% | 1 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | Mortgage Approvals | 52.800K | 52.743K | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | Consumer Credit | £0.300B | £0.049B | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) | £0.9B | £1.3B | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | PMI Construction | 52 | 52.3 | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120104 10:00:00 | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 2.80% | 3.00% | 2 |
| United States | 20120104 12:00:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 1 |
| United States | 20120104 15:00:00 | Factory Orders (MoM) | 2.00% | -0.40% | 2 |
| United States | 20120104 21:00:00 | Total Vehicle Sales | 13.50M | 13.63M | 1 |
| Japan | 20120104 23:50:00 | Monetary Base (YoY) |
| 19.50% | 1 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120104 08:58:00 | Purchasing Manager Index Services | 48.3 | 47.5 | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | M4 Money Supply (MoM) |
| -0.30% | 1 |
SPECIAL NOTE:- We would earnestly request the readers to read carefully the qualifying conditions for the call to be activated. Without meeting the qualifier conditions call do not get activated & simply cursory look at chart & arrow may lead to erroneous call activation & financial losses.
THIS IS THE PORTRAY OF GENERAL BROADER MARKET VIEW WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC STRATEGY & SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUIED AS SPECIFIC CALLS.FOR THE MORE POIGNANT VIEW ON MARKET,WINNING STRATEGY & PIN POINT TIMELY PRICE LEVEL CALLS, CONTACT US TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OUR PREMIUM SERVICES.
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