WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK
USD-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week USD/INR opened at 53.2225 & went down to 53.12 to mark the low of the week. It then kept on rising till 53.8850 to register the high of the week & finally closed at 534875.For the week we see initial support at 53.15-53.25 & initial resistance at 54.00-54.10. The breach of support at 53.15 may lead to 52.10-52.20.Our bias is negative & we see more probability of it moving south but we expect a bounce in the initial part of the week. However global currency market is likely to exhibit heightened volatility& in this dynamic environment, it will be prudent to take this as rough skeleton & we will refine as well as retune final target with the additional data on daily basis. Swing trader should go short on any rally to around 53.95 with the stop of 54.15 for the initial target of 53.15 & 52.20.Once the trade runs in profit please trail the stop to lock in the profit. Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price top formation while entering the trade isvital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.
EURO-USD:-Last week EUR/USD opened at 1.3040 & went up to register the high of 1.3083. It then moved down to register the low of week at 1.2858 & finally closed at 1.2946.For the coming week we see 1.2800-1.2820 as initial support zone & 1.2990-1.3010 as initial resistance. We are expecting highly volatile week as there is 10 year high short position in CHICAGO EXCANGE. Swing traders should go short around 1.2980 with the stop of 1.3020 for the target of 1.2800 & lower. However traders must guard themselves against volatile movements generated by the many events scheduled on next week.Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price bottom formation while entering the trade is vital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.
EURO-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SXFUTURE:-Last week it opened at 69.55 & made the high of 70.3525 on the second day of week. It then kept on declining to mark the low at 69.0050 & finally closed at 69.2075. For the coming week we see 69.60-69.70 as resistance & 67.70-67.90 as support. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short around 69.50 with the stop of 69.75 for the target of 67.90 & lower.Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.
GBP-USD: -Last week it opened at 1.5586 & went up to 1.5701 to mark the high of week. It then kept on declining for the rest of the week till 1.5362 to register the low of week & finally closed at 1.5537. For the week we see 1.5575-1.5600 as resistance & 1.5180-1.5200 as support. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short on any rallytowards 1.5570 with the stop of 1.5600 for the target of 1.5200 & lower.
GBP-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it opened at 83.05 & went up to register the high of the week at 84.2775. It then relentlessly kept on declining to mark the low of the week at 82.3475 & finally closed at 82.5750. We are of the view that it has good support at 80.60-80.80 & resistance at 82.90-83.10. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short on any rally towards 82.80 with the stop of 83.10 for the target of 80.80. Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded . Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.
USD-JPY:-Last week it opened at 78.06 & rose within moment’s mark the high of 78.119.It then declined relentlessly to mark the low of 76.90 & finally closed at 76.972.For the coming week we see 77.20-77.30 as resistance & 76.10-76.20 as support. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short on any rally towards 77.20 with the stop of 77.30 for the target of 76.20 & lower. Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded . Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.
JPY-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE:-Last week it opened at 68.23 &made the low of 67.85 for the week. It then kept on rising to mark the high of the week at 69.2250 & finally closed at 69.0250.In our view there is good support at 68.50-68.70 & resistance at 70.70-70.50. In our view aggressive swing trader should go long around 69.50 with the stop of 69.30 for the target of 70.50.
DOLLAR INDEX:-Last week it opened at 80.15 & went up to 81.31 to mark the high of the week. It then fell to 80.04 to mark the low of the week & finally closed at 80.522.In our view normally it should find resistance at 81.40-81.50 & support at 79.50-79.60.
PIVOT POINT TABLE
| Index/Stock | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| USDINR | 52.3450 | 52.7325 | 53.1100 | 53.4975 | 53.8750 | 54.2625 | 54.6400 |
| EUR | 1.2617 | 1.2737 | 1.2842 | 1.2962 | 1.3067 | 1.3187 | 1.3292 |
| EURINR | 67.3433 | 68.1742 | 68.6908 | 69.5217 | 70.0383 | 70.8692 | 71.3858 |
| GBP | 1.5027 | 1.5194 | 1.5366 | 1.5533 | 1.5705 | 1.5872 | 1.6044 |
| GBPINR | 79.9258 | 81.1367 | 81.8558 | 83.0667 | 83.7858 | 84.9967 | 85.7158 |
| JPY | 75.3227 | 76.1113 | 76.5417 | 77.3303 | 77.7607 | 78.5493 | 78.9797 |
| JPYINR | 66.8000 | 67.3250 | 68.1750 | 68.7000 | 69.5500 | 70.0750 | 70.9250 |
| DOLLAR INDEX | 78.6680 | 79.3540 | 79.9380 | 80.6240 | 81.2080 | 81.8940 | 82.4780 |
ECONOMIC CALENDER
| country | date | name |
| consensus | previous | volatility |
| European Monetary Union | 20120102 09:00:00 | Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing |
| 46.9 | 46.4 | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120104 09:00:00 | Purchasing Manager Index Services |
| 48.3 | 47.5 | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120104 10:00:00 | Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
| 2.80% | 3.00% | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120105 10:00:00 | Industrial New Orders (YoY) |
| 3.30% | 1.60% | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120105 10:00:00 | Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM) |
| 2.50% | -6.40% | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120105 10:00:00 | Producer Price Index (MoM) |
| 0.10% | 0.10% | 1 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120105 10:00:00 | Producer Price Index (YoY) |
| 5.20% | 5.50% | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120106 10:00:00 | Consumer Confidence |
| -21.2 | -20.4 | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120106 10:00:00 | Economic Confidence |
| 93.2 | 93.7 | 1 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120106 10:00:00 | Industrial Confidence |
| -7.5 | -7.3 | 1 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120106 10:00:00 | Retail Sales (MoM) |
| -0.40% | 0.40% | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120106 10:00:00 | Retail Sales (YoY) |
| -0.90% | -0.40% | 2 |
| European Monetary Union | 20120106 10:00:00 | Unemployment Rate |
| 10.30% | 10.30% | 2 |
| Japan | 20120104 23:50:00 | Monetary Base (YoY) |
|
| 19.50% | 1 |
| United Kingdom | 20120103 09:30:00 | Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing |
| 47.3 | 47.6 | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | Consumer Credit |
| £0.300B | £0.049B | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | M4 Money Supply (MoM) |
|
| -0.30% | 1 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | M4 Money Supply (YoY) |
|
| -2.70% | 1 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | Mortgage Approvals |
| 52.800K | 52.743K | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) |
| £0.9B | £1.3B | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120104 09:30:00 | PMI Construction |
| 52 | 52.3 | 2 |
| United Kingdom | 20120105 08:00:00 | Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY) |
|
| -1% | 1 |
| United Kingdom | 20120105 08:00:00 | Halifax House Prices (MoM) |
|
| -0.90% | 1 |
| United Kingdom | 20120105 09:30:00 | Purchasing Manager Index Services |
| 51.5 | 52.1 | 2 |
| United States | 20120103 15:00:00 | Construction Spending (MoM) |
| 0.50% | 0.80% | 2 |
| United States | 20120103 15:00:00 | ISM Manufacturing |
| 53.2 | 52.7 | 2 |
| United States | 20120103 15:00:00 | ISM Prices Paid |
| 47.9 | 45 | 2 |
| United States | 20120103 19:00:00 | FOMC Minutes |
|
|
| 3 |
| United States | 20120104 12:00:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
|
| 1 |
| United States | 20120104 15:00:00 | Factory Orders |
| 2.00% | -0.40% | 2 |
| United States | 20120104 21:00:00 | Total Vehicle Sales |
| 13.50M | 13.63M | 1 |
| United States | 20120105 13:15:00 | ADP Employment Change |
| 165K | 206K | 2 |
| United States | 20120105 13:30:00 | Continuing Jobless Claims |
| 3.522M | 3.601M | 1 |
| United States | 20120105 13:30:00 | Initial Jobless Claims |
| 375K | 381K | 1 |
| United States | 20120105 15:00:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing |
| 53 | 52 | 2 |
| United States | 20120105 16:00:00 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 3.899M | 1 |
| United States | 20120106 13:30:00 | Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
| 0.20% | -0.10% | 2 |
| United States | 20120106 13:30:00 | Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) |
| 2.10% | 1.80% | 2 |
| United States | 20120106 13:30:00 | Average Weekly Hours |
| 34.3 | 34.3 | 1 |
| United States | 20120106 13:30:00 | Nonfarm Payrolls |
| 150K | 120K | 3 |
| United States | 20120106 13:30:00 | Unemployment Rate |
| 8.70% | 8.60% | 3 |
SPECIAL NOTE: -We would earnestly request the readers to read carefully the qualifying conditions for the call to be activated. Without meeting the qualifier conditions call do not get activated & simply cursory look at chart & arrow may lead to erroneous call activation & financial losses.
THIS IS THE PORTRAY OF GENERAL BROADER MARKET VIEW WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC STRATEGY & SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUIED AS SPECIFIC CALLS.FOR THE MORE POIGNANT VIEW ON MARKET,WINNING STRATEGY & PIN POINT TIMELY PRICE LEVEL CALLS, CONTACT US TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OUR PREMIUM SERVICES.
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