WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK



USD-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week USD/INR opened at 53.2225 & went down to 53.12 to mark the low of the week. It then kept on rising till 53.8850 to register the high of the week & finally closed at 534875.For the week we see initial support at 53.15-53.25 & initial resistance at 54.00-54.10. The breach of support at 53.15 may lead to 52.10-52.20.Our bias is negative & we see more probability of it moving south but we expect a bounce in the initial part of the week.  However global currency market is likely to exhibit heightened volatility& in this dynamic environment, it will be prudent to take this as rough skeleton & we will refine as well as retune final target with the additional data on daily basis. Swing trader should go short on any rally to around  53.95 with the stop of 54.15 for the initial target of 53.15 & 52.20.Once the trade runs in profit please trail the stop to lock in the profit. Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price top formation while entering the trade isvital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.



EURO-USD:-Last week EUR/USD opened at 1.3040 & went up to register the high of 1.3083. It then moved down to register the low of week at 1.2858 & finally closed at 1.2946.For the coming week we see 1.2800-1.2820 as initial support zone & 1.2990-1.3010 as initial resistance. We are expecting highly volatile week as there is 10 year high short position in CHICAGO EXCANGE.  Swing traders should go short around 1.2980 with the stop of 1.3020  for the target of 1.2800 & lower. However traders must guard themselves against volatile movements generated by the many events scheduled on next week.Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price bottom formation while entering the trade is vital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.


EURO-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SXFUTURE:-Last week it opened at 69.55 & made the high of 70.3525 on the second day of week.  It then kept on declining to mark the low at 69.0050 & finally closed at 69.2075. For the coming week we see 69.60-69.70 as resistance & 67.70-67.90 as support.  In our view aggressive swing trader should  go short  around 69.50  with the stop of 69.75 for the target of 67.90 & lower.Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.




GBP-USD: -Last week it opened at 1.5586 & went up   to 1.5701 to mark the high of week. It then kept on declining for the rest of the week till 1.5362 to register the low of week & finally closed at 1.5537. For the week we see 1.5575-1.5600 as resistance & 1.5180-1.5200 as support. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short on any rallytowards  1.5570 with the stop of 1.5600 for the target of 1.5200 & lower.



GBP-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it opened at 83.05 & went up to register the high of the week at 84.2775. It then relentlessly kept on declining to mark the low of the week at 82.3475 & finally closed at 82.5750. We are of the view that it has good support at 80.60-80.80 & resistance at 82.90-83.10. In our view aggressive swing trader should  go short on any rally towards 82.80   with the stop of 83.10  for the target of 80.80.  Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded . Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.



USD-JPY:-Last week it opened at 78.06 & rose within moment’s mark the high of 78.119.It then declined relentlessly to mark the low of 76.90 & finally closed at 76.972.For the coming week we see 77.20-77.30 as resistance   & 76.10-76.20 as support. In our view aggressive swing trader should  go short on any rally towards 77.20   with the stop of 77.30  for the target of 76.20 & lower. Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded . Remember trader’s discretion & judgment of price behaviour while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.


JPY-INR JAN 2012 MCX-SX FUTURE:-Last week it opened at 68.23 &made the low of 67.85 for the week. It then kept on rising to mark the high of the week at 69.2250 & finally closed at 69.0250.In our view there is good support at 68.50-68.70 & resistance at 70.70-70.50. In our view aggressive swing trader should go long around 69.50 with the stop of 69.30 for the target of 70.50.



DOLLAR INDEX:-Last week it opened at 80.15 & went up to 81.31 to mark the high of the week.  It then fell to 80.04 to mark the low of the week & finally closed at 80.522.In our view normally it should find resistance at 81.40-81.50 & support at 79.50-79.60.




 PIVOT POINT TABLE

Index/Stock

S3

S2

S1

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

52.3450

52.7325

53.1100

53.4975

53.8750

54.2625

54.6400

EUR

1.2617

1.2737

1.2842

1.2962

1.3067

1.3187

1.3292

EURINR

67.3433

68.1742

68.6908

69.5217

70.0383

70.8692

71.3858

GBP

1.5027

1.5194

1.5366

1.5533

1.5705

1.5872

1.6044

GBPINR

79.9258

81.1367

81.8558

83.0667

83.7858

84.9967

85.7158

JPY

75.3227

76.1113

76.5417

77.3303

77.7607

78.5493

78.9797

JPYINR

66.8000

67.3250

68.1750

68.7000

69.5500

70.0750

70.9250

DOLLAR INDEX

78.6680

79.3540

79.9380

80.6240

81.2080

81.8940

82.4780



ECONOMIC CALENDER

 

country

date

name

 

consensus

previous

volatility

European Monetary Union

20120102 09:00:00

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

 

46.9

46.4

2

European Monetary Union

20120104 09:00:00

Purchasing Manager Index Services

 

48.3

47.5

2

European Monetary Union

20120104 10:00:00

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

 

2.80%

3.00%

2

European Monetary Union

20120105 10:00:00

Industrial New Orders (YoY)

 

3.30%

1.60%

2

European Monetary Union

20120105 10:00:00

Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM)

 

2.50%

-6.40%

2

European Monetary Union

20120105 10:00:00

Producer Price Index (MoM)

 

0.10%

0.10%

1

European Monetary Union

20120105 10:00:00

Producer Price Index (YoY)

 

5.20%

5.50%

2

European Monetary Union

20120106 10:00:00

Consumer Confidence

 

-21.2

-20.4

2

European Monetary Union

20120106 10:00:00

Economic Confidence

 

93.2

93.7

1

European Monetary Union

20120106 10:00:00

Industrial Confidence

 

-7.5

-7.3

1

European Monetary Union

20120106 10:00:00

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.40%

0.40%

2

European Monetary Union

20120106 10:00:00

Retail Sales (YoY)

 

-0.90%

-0.40%

2

European Monetary Union

20120106 10:00:00

Unemployment Rate

 

10.30%

10.30%

2

Japan

20120104 23:50:00

Monetary Base (YoY)

 

 

19.50%

1

United Kingdom

20120103 09:30:00

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing

 

47.3

47.6

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

Consumer Credit

 

£0.300B

£0.049B

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

M4 Money Supply (MoM)

 

 

-0.30%

1

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

M4 Money Supply (YoY)

 

 

-2.70%

1

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

Mortgage Approvals

 

52.800K

52.743K

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)

 

£0.9B

£1.3B

2

United Kingdom

20120104 09:30:00

PMI Construction

 

52

52.3

2

United Kingdom

20120105 08:00:00

Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)

 

 

-1%

1

United Kingdom

20120105 08:00:00

Halifax House Prices (MoM)

 

 

-0.90%

1

United Kingdom

20120105 09:30:00

Purchasing Manager Index Services

 

51.5

52.1

2

United States

20120103 15:00:00

Construction Spending (MoM)

 

0.50%

0.80%

2

United States

20120103 15:00:00

ISM Manufacturing

 

53.2

52.7

2

United States

20120103 15:00:00

ISM Prices Paid

 

47.9

45

2

United States

20120103 19:00:00

FOMC Minutes

 

 

 

3

United States

20120104 12:00:00

MBA Mortgage Applications

 

 

 

1

United States

20120104 15:00:00

Factory Orders

 

2.00%

-0.40%

2

United States

20120104 21:00:00

Total Vehicle Sales

 

13.50M

13.63M

1

United States

20120105 13:15:00

ADP Employment Change

 

165K

206K

2

United States

20120105 13:30:00

Continuing Jobless Claims

 

3.522M

3.601M

1

United States

20120105 13:30:00

Initial Jobless Claims

 

375K

381K

1

United States

20120105 15:00:00

ISM Non-Manufacturing

 

53

52

2

United States

20120105 16:00:00

EIA Crude Oil Stocks change

 

 

3.899M

1

United States

20120106 13:30:00

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

 

0.20%

-0.10%

2

United States

20120106 13:30:00

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

 

2.10%

1.80%

2

United States

20120106 13:30:00

Average Weekly Hours

 

34.3

34.3

1

United States

20120106 13:30:00

Nonfarm Payrolls

 

150K

120K

3

United States

20120106 13:30:00

Unemployment Rate

 

8.70%

8.60%

3

 


SPECIAL NOTE: -We would earnestly request the readers to read carefully the qualifying conditions for the call to be activated. Without meeting the qualifier conditions call do not get activated & simply cursory look at chart & arrow may lead to erroneous call activation & financial losses.

 

                        THIS IS THE PORTRAY OF GENERAL BROADER MARKET VIEW WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC STRATEGY & SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUIED AS SPECIFIC CALLS.FOR THE MORE POIGNANT VIEW ON MARKET,WINNING STRATEGY & PIN POINT TIMELY PRICE LEVEL CALLS, CONTACT US  TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OUR PREMIUM SERVICES. 

 

 

      WRITER WELCOMES ANY SUGGESTIONS, FEEDBACK OR QUERY AT INFO@JKDVIEWPOINT.COM.    



 

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