WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK (010811)
SILVER:- Last week silver made the high of 41.44 against the estimated range of 40.85-41.15.For the coming week we see 40.60-39.30 as trading range, resistance at 42.60-42.90 & downside supports at 38.20-38.50 & at 37.00-37.30. We recommend going short around 40.60 with the stop of 40.90 for the target of 38.50. In rupee terms we recommend long position in SEPT MCX future around 58600 with the stop of 58300 for the target of 59800 & above.
CRUDE:- Last week it made the low of 94.95 & high of 100.62 against our expectation of the 94.00 & 102.00.In our view 98.00-95.50 is the trading range & breach of 95.50 will find the support at 92.75-92.25.Similarly break above 98.00 will find resistance at 99.50-100.00 & then at 102.00-102.50.Our bias is positive. We recommend going long on cross above 98.00 with the stop of 97.50 for the target of 102.50. In rupee terms we recommend going long above 4310 with the stop of 4260 for the target of 4440 & above at MCX AUG 2011 FUTURE.
NATURALGAS:- Natural gas is in the process of terminating the larger degree downside corrective pattern with minimum one more new low below 4064.The estimated trajectory has been drawn on the chart. Scalpers & swing traders can weave their trading strategy around this trajectory.For the longer term horizon, We recommend going long around 4000 with the stop of 3925 for the target of 4400.In rupee terms go long below 180 with the stop of 170 for the target of 200-205 in AUG 2011 MCX FUTURE.
COPPER:-Last week copper has broken out from the trading range of 9735-9605 & made the high of 9815.In our view it is in bullish uptrend. We see good support at 9725-9675 & as along as it trades above this we would be bullish to look for 10175-10225.As an extreme case it may stretch to 10575-10600.We recommend going long around 9800 with the stop of 9650 for the target of 10200. In rupee terms go long around 436 with the stop of 435 for 438 & 442 in AUG 2011 MCX future.
LEAD:- Last week it made the high of 2750 & low of 2613 against our estimate of 2780 & 2655 respectively. We see 2610-2710 as trading range with the support at 2565-2550. On upper side cross above 2710 may lead to 2780 & as an extreme case it may hit the target of 2900. We recommend going long on cross above 2710 with the stop of 2680 for the target of 2780 & 2900. In rupee terms go long AUG 2011.MCX future above 117 with the stop of 116 for the target of 121.50 & 123.5. 
ZINC:- Last week it made the high of 2539.50 & low of 2456 against our estimate of 2560 & 2440 respectively. However it has shown the rise on waning momentum. This is implying the impending correction. For the coming week we see it correcting it to the level of 2335-2350.We recommend going short at 2520 with the stop of 2550 for the target of 2350 .In rupee terms go short AUG 2011 MCX FUTURE at 109.00 with the stop of 110 for the target of 104-105.
ALUMINIUM:- Last week it made the low of 2568 & high of 2675.25.It commenced the down ward correction from there & we see it continue in coming week to 2580-2570 level We recommend going long at 2600 with the stop of 2570 for the target of 2800. In rupee terms around 114.500 with the stop of 114.00 for the target of 119 at AUG 2011 MCX FUTURE.
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