JKD VIEWPOINT: WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK 250711

WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK 250711

USD-INR AUG 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it opened at 44.99 & this itself was the high of the day. It went down to mark the low at 44.61 & finally closed at 44.6225.We are of the view that the decline from 45.60 has either terminated at 44.60 or it may make a nominally new low below 44.60 to terminate the downtrend within the support zone 44.57-44.60. On the upside we see resistances at 44.89-44.92 & 45.07-45.10.However in the such global currency turmoil with volatile & dynamic environment, it will be prudent to take this as rough skeleton & we will refine as well as retuned final target with the additional data on daily basis. Swing trader should go long around 44.62 with the stop 44.57 for the target of 44.89 & 45.07. Once the trade runs in profit please trail the stop to lock in the profit. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price top/bottom formation while entering the trade is vital for profitability of trade & this can be done at that moment of time only.

EURO-USD:-Last week just on the opening day it made the low of 1.4015 & reversed sharply to cross 1.4284 & made the high of 1.4440 before reverting back to consolidation. We are bullish on this however a consolidation as well as of correction can not be ruled out of last week’s rise. For the coming week we see 1.4275-1.4250 as support & resistances at 1.4575-1.4550 & 1.4675-1.4700.   Swing traders should go long on any decline towards 1.4250   with the stop of 1.4210 for the target of 1.4550 & 1.4675.However traders must guard themselves against volatile movements generated by the many events scheduled on next week.

EURO-INR JULY 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it opened at 63.10, made the bottom of 62.885 & rose sharply on expected line to 64.2625.We are bullish but for the initial part of the week last week’s rise needs to be corrected & consolidated & then commence the further rise.   In our view aggressive swing trader should go long around   63.85 with the stop of 63.70 for the target of 65.20 & higher.Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any lower target can also be taken advantage of it. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.

GBP:- Last week it made the high of 1.6341as a further march towards our target of 1.6500. In our view aggressive swing trader should go LONG around 1.6260 with the stop of 1.6235 for the target of 1.6500 .

GBP-INR AUG 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it opened at 72.22, made the low of 71.9350 & bounced off to mark high at 72.745 & finally close at 72.67. For the coming week we see further up movement to 72.90-73.00 & reverse sharply to 72.10-72.20. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short   around.73.00 with the stop placed at 73.25 for the target of 72.10 . Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any lower target can also be taken advantage of it. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.

USD-JPY:- Last week it made the low of 78.22, today morning 78.09 & flashed the symptoms of reversal. We are bearish & look yen to appreciate against $.However for the coming week we expect it to bounce to 79.20-79.30 levels. In our view aggressive swing trader should go long   around 78.30 with the tight stop of 78.15 for the target of 79.20.

JPY-INR AUG 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it made the high of 56.7625 & then declined sharply to mark the low at 56.40.In our view it should correct to 56.00-56.10 & will find resistance at 56.80- 56.70. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short around 56.65 with the stops of 56.80 for the target of 56.10.

DOLLAR INDEX :- Last week it made the low of 74.125 as part attempt to test the 73.20-73.55 zone.We maintain our last week’s view of 73.20-73.55 & then bounce.

WEEKLY PIVOT POINTS

SPECIAL NOTE:- We would earnestly request the readers to read carefully the qualifying conditions for the call to be activated. Without meeting the qualifier conditions call do not get activated & simply cursory look at chart & arrow may lead to erroneous call activation & financial losses.

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