WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK
USD-INR JULY 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it formed the second DOJI
after two BLACK MORUBOZU weekly candles. This is an clear indication of
indecision. However some sign of positive bias in terms of Dow THEORY are
available & we will assume trend indecision with mild positive bias. In our
view it has formed the 45.00-45.35 as
trading range & breach of trading range on upside has resistance at
45.40-45.43 whereas on downside 45.12-45.15 support. We may see 45.60-45.63 as
stretched upside case. However in the such global currency turmoil with
volatile & dynamic environment, it will be prudent to take this as rough
skeleton & we will refine as well as retuned final target with the
additional data on daily basis. Swing trader should go long on break below of 45.18 with the stop 45.10
for the target of 45.40 & higher. Once the trade runs in profit
please trail the stop to lock in the profit. Remember traders discretion & judgment of
price top/bottom formation while
entering the trade is vital for
profitability of trade & this can be
done at that moment of time only.

EURO-USD:-Last week it formed the small black body candle indicating the mild negative trend. In our view it will oscillate in the 1.4100-1.4350 couple of times & then break down to 1.3915-1.3885 range. Swing traders should go short on breach of 1.4120 with the stop of 1.4160 for the target of 1.3900 & lower.However traders must guard themselves against volatile movements generated by the many events scheduled on Monday.

EURO-INR JULY 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it made the top of 65.05 & turned downside to 64.20 to exhibit the bearish undercurrent. For the coming week we see gap down opening in the 64.05-64.00 range & initially moving further down to 63.60-63.70 & 63.20-63.25.Therafter we expect some corrective up movements. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short around 64.05 with the stop of 64.20 for the target of 62.50.Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any lower target can also be taken advantage of it. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.

GBP:- Last week's price action was clean black MORUBOZU implying the downtrend. We are expecting this downtrend to continue in coming week to hit the target of 1.5790-1.5750 before a meaningful corrective rally to emerge. In our view aggressive swing trader should go LONG below 1.5800 with the stop of 1.5750 for the target of 1.6000 - 1.6050 & higher.
GBP-INR JULY 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it made the low of 72.23 & closed at 72.465. For the coming week we see further down movement to 71.65-71.75. In our view aggressive swing trader should go long around.71.80 with the stop placed at 71.50 for the target of 73.10 & higher. Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any lower target can also be taken advantage of it.
Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior while entering the trade is vital for right direction & this can be done at that moment of time only.

USD-JPY:- Last week it made the bottom of 80.00 & closed at
80.43.We are mildly positive till Tuesday or till EURUSD reverses for upside.In
our estimate it may go up to
81.40-81.50. In our view aggressive
swing trader should go long
around 80.60 with the tight stop
of 80.40 for the target of 81.50-81.40.

JPY-INR JUNE 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last 7-8 weeks it is confined to 56.25-55.25 range & it is now ripe time for it to break congestion & that to with momentum. However it is best to wait till the range is broken. In our view aggressive swing trader should go short on any rally around 56.10 with the stops of 56.30 for the target of 55.60 & lower.

DOLLAR INDEX :- Last week it made the high of 76.280.This is very close
to our target of 76.70-76.95.For the week it may not rise swiftly but crawling
rise will continue & bias will be positive.



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