WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

USD-INR JULY 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it formed the second DOJI after two BLACK MORUBOZU weekly candles. This is an clear indication of indecision. However some sign of positive bias in terms of Dow THEORY are available & we will assume trend indecision with mild positive bias. In our view it has formed the 45.00-45.35 as  trading range & breach of trading range on upside has resistance at 45.40-45.43 whereas on downside 45.12-45.15 support. We may see 45.60-45.63 as stretched upside case. However in the such global currency turmoil with volatile & dynamic environment, it will be prudent to take this as rough skeleton & we will refine as well as retuned final target with the additional data on daily basis. Swing trader should go long on break below of 45.18  with the stop  45.10  for the target of 45.40 & higher. Once the trade runs in profit please trail the stop to lock in the profit.  Remember traders discretion & judgment of price top/bottom  formation while entering the trade  is vital for profitability of trade  & this can be done at that moment of time only.


EURO-USD:-Last week it formed the  small black body candle indicating the mild negative trend. In our view it will oscillate in the 1.4100-1.4350 couple of times & then break down to 1.3915-1.3885  range. Swing traders should go short  on breach of  1.4120 with the stop of 1.4160 for the target of 1.3900 & lower.However traders must guard themselves against volatile movements generated by the many events scheduled on Monday.


EURO-INR JULY 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it made the top of 65.05 & turned downside  to  64.20  to exhibit the bearish undercurrent. For the coming week we see  gap down opening in the 64.05-64.00 range & initially  moving further down to 63.60-63.70 & 63.20-63.25.Therafter we expect some corrective up  movements.  In our view aggressive  swing trader should  go short around   64.05 with the stop of 64.20  for the target of 62.50.Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any lower target can also be taken advantage of it. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior while entering the trade  is vital for right direction  & this can be done at that moment of time only.


GBP:-  Last week's price action was clean black MORUBOZU implying the downtrend. We are expecting this downtrend to continue in coming week to hit the target of 1.5790-1.5750 before a meaningful corrective rally to emerge.   In our view aggressive  swing trader should go LONG  below 1.5800 with the stop of 1.5750  for the target of 1.6000 - 1.6050 & higher.

 

GBP-INR JULY 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it  made the low of 72.23 & closed at 72.465. For the coming week we see  further down movement to 71.65-71.75. In our view aggressive  swing trader should go long   around.71.80  with the stop placed at 71.50 for the target of 73.10 & higher. Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any lower target can also be taken advantage of it.

 Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior while entering the trade  is vital for right direction  & this can be done at that moment of time only.



USD-JPY:- Last week  it made the bottom of 80.00 & closed at 80.43.We are mildly positive till Tuesday or till EURUSD reverses for upside.In our estimate it may go up to  81.40-81.50. In our view aggressive  swing trader should go long   around  80.60 with the tight stop of 80.40 for the target of 81.50-81.40.  


JPY-INR JUNE 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last 7-8 weeks it is confined to 56.25-55.25 range & it is now ripe time for it to break congestion & that to with momentum. However it is best to wait till the range is broken.   In our view aggressive  swing trader should go short on any rally around 56.10  with the stops of 56.30 for the target of 55.60 & lower.


DOLLAR INDEX :- Last week  it made the high of 76.280.This is very close to our target of 76.70-76.95.For the week it may not rise swiftly but crawling rise will continue & bias will be positive.


 

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