WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK (13-06-11 TO 17-06-11)

GOLD:-Last week we had shown two likely  trajectories with the 1560& 1585 as respective targets .It made the high of 1555 & reversed sharply to close at 1532.This almost negate the bullish trajectory unless it crosses 1560.Downside bearish momentum to accelerate below 1525.We recommend selling short on breach of 1525 with the stop of 1535 for the initial target of 1488 & then 1440.In rupee terms sell on breach of 22400 with the stop of 22500 for the initial target of 22200 & then 21600 as target in AUG 2011 MCX FUTURE.


SILVER:- Last week it followed the less probable bearish route against our expectation of bearish route to mark the high of the week at 37.86 & reversed swiftly. For the coming week we foresee highly volatile , initially bearish(32.50) & then bullish. We recommend going  short around  36.80 with the stop of 37.40 for the initial target of 34.50 & then stretched target of 32.50.In rupee terms sell short around 54700 with 55200 as stop for the  initial target of 51600 & then stretched target of 48900 in JULY 2011 MCX FUTURE.




CRUDE:-Last week  it  followed the less probable trajectory &  made the high of   102.44 & swiftly declined to 99 levels..We see resistance at 99.50-100.00.In our view it should decline 95-96 & find the support & breach of 95.50 will lead to 86-88 zone. We recommend going short above 99.25 with the stop of 100.00 for the target of 95.50-96 & 88.00.In rupee terms sell at 4450 with the stop of 4480 for the initial target of 4340 & then 4225 & 3940 in JUNE 2011 MCX FUTURE.



NATURALGAS:- Last week it made the high of off viciously to 4651.We do see some consolidation during the initial part of the week, with our bullish bias looking it to head for 5120-5160 as normal case & 5380-5440 as stretched case. We recommend going   long around 4750  with the  stop of 4650 for the target of 5120-5160 & 5380-5440 if stretches further. In rupee terms buy around 212.00 with the stop of 208 for the target of  227 & above in JUNE 2011 MCX FUTURE.



COPPER:- Copper made the high of 417 against our estimate of 419-417& declined to mark the low at 402.00. In the process it has formed the descending triangle with the base at 402.In  our view it has resistance at 412-410. Downside we are looking for the support at 388-386 &  as stretched case 375-373.We recommend going  short at 408 with the stop of 412 for the initial target of 387 & 374. In rupee terms go short above 405  with the stop of 409 for the target of  390 & lower in JUNE 2011 MCXX FUTURE.






LEAD:- Last  week it made the top of 2615 & terminated the five wave pattern on the upside. We now see the resistance at 2580-2600 for any up move & downside we see support at 2380-2400. We recommend the short position at 2560   with the stop of 2610 for the target of 2400 & 2270. In rupee terms sell around 115 with the   stop   of 116 for the target of 109 & lower in JUNE 2011 MCX FUTURE.











NICKEL:- Nickel has been laggard with its peers base metals in time. Last week  it has hit the high of 23303.  We are expecting a resistance at 23050-23200 & supports at 22050-22200 & 21400-21500. For the coming week we recommend  going  short  above 22800 with the stop of 23300 for the target of 22200 & 21500. In rupee terms go  short  around  1025  with the stop of 1040 for the target of 980 & 940 in JUNE 2011 MCX FUTURE.










 

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