Weekly Commodity Outlook

GOLD:-Last week's gold  made the high of 1525.10 with the weekly DOJI candle which neither confirm nor negate the previous week's BEARISH ENGULFING LINE. For the coming we see resistance 1530-1540 & support at 1452-1445 & then at 1425-1410.  We recommend selling short at any rally around 15200 with the stop of 1545 for the target of 1445-1452 initially & then 1410-1425. In rupee terms sell short above 21900   with the stop of 22100 for the target of 21550 & 20980  in JUNE 2011 MCX FUTURE.

SILVER:- Last week   it made the high of 39.47 & commenced the fresh down albeit with lower momentum. For the coming week we see resistance at 38.56-39.50 & supports at 32.60-32.00 & then at 29.60-29.00.  We recommend selling short above 36.25 with the stop of 38.50 for the target of 31.80 & 27.60.In rupee terms sell short above 53500 with 54500 as stop for the target below 47000 in JULY 2011 MCX FUTURE.



CRUDE:-Last week  it made the new high of 104.60 against our estimate of 104-105 & fell down again. For the coming week we see resistance at 100.50-101.50 & initial support at 95.50-96.50 & then finally to 87.50-88.50.We recommend selling short around 100 with the stop of 102 for the target of 96 & 88.In rupee terms sell short above 4570 with the stop of 4625  for the target of 4250.



NATURALGAS:-Last week it  made the low  of 4109 & bounced off. In our view it is in congestion of 4100-4300 & we are of the view it will break on upside for the initial target of 4650.We recommend going   long on break above  4300  with the  stop of 4250 for the target of 4650 & above. In rupee terms buy around 191.00 with the stop of 187 for the target of 207 in MAY 2011 MCX FUTURE.



COPPER:-Copper hit the low of 385.30 last week & bounce back to 405.In our view it is likely to consolidate within 385-409 for quite some time. As per our analysis it has resistance at 409-407 on upside & downside 386-389 support zone.  We recommend selling short  around 399  with the tight stop of 402 for the target of 389 .Alternatively may be bought at 389 with the stop of 384 for target of 405.In rupee terms sell above 402 with the stop of 408 or on breach of 396 for the target of 389.00 in JUNE 2011 MCX FUTURE.


LEAD:- Last five week it had been declining under the influence of EVENING STAR & simultaneously breached the rising wedge. For the coming week we expect 2365-2420 as resistance & supports at 2200-2150 & then at  2055-2005.We recommend the short position above 2300   with the stop of 2385 for the target of 2150 & 2005. In rupee terms sell around 104 with the   stop   of 106 for the target of 98. & 92.00 in MAY 2011 MCX FUTURE.



NICKEL:- Nickel has been laggard with its peers base metals in time. Currently it is in the congestion zone of 24000-26000 & there is no clear trend. For the coming week we recommend  going  short  on breach of 24000 with the stop of 24500 for the target of 21300.In rupee terms go  short on breach of 1080  with the stop of 1095 for the target of 1050 & 1005  in MAY 2011 MCX FUTURE.



ZINC:- ZINC has been worst performing among the base metal pack. In our view it's downward momentum has not been totally dispensed & it may still seek lower levels. We recommend selling above 2170 with the stop of 2215 for the target of 1950 & then 1700.In rupee terms sell above 98 with the stop of 100 for the target of 90.00 in MAY 2011 FUT AT MCX.



ALUMINIUM:-On the expected line it has formed the BEARISH ENGULFING LINE in weekly chart & confirmed the termination of larger degree pattern on upside.  We recommend selling short on bounce above of 2575 with the stop of 2650 for the target of  2370. In rupee terms sell at 116 with the stop of 119 for the target of 111 or lower at MCX MAY 2011 FUTURE.



 

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