IS NIFTY UPTREND INTACT?  WE  THINK S0.

                Last week nifty opened at 5805.35 & went down to mark the low at 5735.55. It then went up for  to register the high of the week at 5923.60 to finally close the week at 5824.55.Thus it lost 17.45 points over the previous week which is 0.3%  approximately.

RETROSPECT: - Last  week we have  entered long positions at 5775 with the stop of 5720 for the target above 6000 & we holding the same.

SENTIMENTS: -  Improvement in sentiments due to the last few week's rally is washed with the results of INFOSYS.However we do not see further dampening & any one or two good results will brush aside.

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: -  As explained in last few weeks nifty has commenced the fresh uptrend from the bottom of 5177.70.The exact wave count has been shown below in chart with the black color as confirmed wave count till 5177.70.The decline from the 6338 to 5177 is labeled as the ELONGATED FLAT. There are various probabilities from here. First it may be wave four of the terminal fifth. Second it may be part of the larger or complex correction. Third it may be part of the limiting triangle. We just have to wait for the further unfolding of the data to arrive at the probable wave count. At the moment we have to assume the trend to be up & accordingly we have given two probable wave counts from the 5177 in green & black color. However one characteristics is very much evident that even if the trend is impulse it is likely to face resistance at every rally. In short rise will be choppy either way impulse or corrective.

On the shorter term chart we have taken the 5177.70 as starting reference point. We have shown two probable wave count in green & black color. The green color wave counts essentially portrays the  corrective pattern in Elliot wave theory. This we are taking as low probability wave count as the momentum in rise is high. The post pattern behavior from the 5608 also tilt in the favor of black color wave count. Essentially for the same reason black color wave count is assigned high probability. However if it picks up the momentum  on downside & reaches around 5600 then green color wave count will become the high probable wave count.  

SECTOR ANALYSIS:- We intend to analyze the METAL sectoral index.This has been consolidating within the 14000-18000 range for the almost about last 10 months.We are of the view that in next 3-4 months it will reach 22000 .We suggest to invest in this sector for the 20% return in next six months.

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- There is no significant  pattern visible.

CHART PATTERN:-  There is no significant chart pattern visible.

OSCILLATORS READING:-  The daily RSI,STOCHASTIC & MACD have  entered the overbought level. In the weekly chart oscillators are also turning up & indicates the reversal of intermediate  trend.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS:-  Since there is no clarity for the direction of market & tilts in favor of bearish we would like to avoid giving any recommendations.

PULSE-READING:-  JKD SOUL VOICE SAYS TRADE ONLY IF YOU CAN SWIFTLY MOVE IN & OUT & DO NOT HESITATE TO EXECUTE STOPLOSSES.OTHERWISE WAIT TILL THE JAPAN & LIBYA CRISIS & CRUDE COOLS DOWN.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-  WATCH THE 5700-5950 CLOSELY.BULLISH ON CROSS ABOVE OF 5950.SOFT BREACH OF 5700 WILL LEAD TO SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION & SERIOUS BREACH WILL LEAD TO BEARISH TONE.

THIS IS THE PORTRAY OF GENERAL BROADER MARKET VIEW WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC STRATEGY & SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUIED AS SPECIFIC CALLS.FOR THE MORE POIGNANT VIEW ON MARKET,WINNING STRATEGY & PIN POINT TIMELY PRICE LEVEL CALLS, CONTACT US  TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OUR PREMIUM SERVICES.           

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