Weekly Currency Outlook

USD-INR APRIL 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it  opened at 44.3825,made the low of 44.1675 &  made the high of 44.6950 to close at 44.4375.It has crossed our estimated target 1 & 2 respectively at 44.40-44.44 & 44.58-44.62 & reversed for the downside. For the coming week we see it retesting the bottom at 44.10 & there are two potential supports at 44.19-44.15 & then at 44.06-44.10.Depending on the magnitude of momentum it will reversed or pierced through. At the moment we are expecting it to rebound. However in the such global turmoil with volatile & dynamic environment, it will be prudent to take this as rough skeleton & we will refine as well as retuned final target with the additional data on daily basis. Swing trader should short at 44.43-44.45 with the stop  of 44.50  for the target of 44.15-44.19 & lower.Alternatively it may be bought around at 44.10-44.15   with the stop 44.05 for the initial target of 44.35. Once the trade runs in profit please trail the stop to lock in the profit.     

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

43.9058

44.1716

44.4333

44.6991

44.9608





SPECIAL NOTE:- We would earnestly request the readers to read carefully the qualifying conditions for the call to be activated. Without meeting the qualifier conditions call do not get activated & simply cursory look at chart & arrow may lead to erroneous call activation & financial losses.

EURO-USD:-Last week it opened at 1.4483,surged to mark the high of 1.4520  & went down to register the low of 1.4363 to finally close at 1.4429.It is pertinent to note that we had estimated the high in the range of 1.4500-1.4540 & low as 1.4360 & both were achieved. In our view it has formed the top at 1.4520 in 90% probability or may make a few tick above this & retrace back to 1.4250 or lower. Swing trader  go short around 1.4475  with the stop of 1.4550  for the initial target of 1.4250  & lower. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior while entering the trade  is vital for right direction  & this can be done at that moment of time only

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

1.4280

1.4354

1.4437

1.4511

1.4594




EURO-INR APRIL 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it  opened  at 63.80, made low of 63.6375 & high of 64.7025 to close finally at 64.2150.In our view it has formed the top at 64.7025 & there are very slim chances that this will cross even nominally. We would not be surprised if it opens with the gap down. We see 63.60-63.70 & 63.30-63.20 as potential support on the downside. With the events like Libya, Japan & boiling crude can alter the equations faster than analyst imaginations & best be referred to daily report. In our view aggressive  swing trader should go short on any rally if it opens gap down   with the stop of 64.25 for the target of 63.70& lower.Once the trade runs in profit trail the stop suitably for exit so that profit is compounded & any lower target can also be taken advantage of it. Remember traders discretion & judgment of price behavior while entering the trade  is vital for right direction  & this can be done at that moment of time only.

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

63.12

63.6675

64.1850

64.7325

65.2400

 


 

GBP:-  Last week it made the high of 164.26 & closed the week at 1.6317.We are expecting one more high above 1.6426 in the range of 1.6430-1.6450 to terminate a larger degree pattern & follow with swift downward correction to 1.6260-1.6240 range. Trajectory of the same is drawn on the chart below. In our view aggressive  swing trader should go short above 1.6430 with the stop of 1.6475 for the target of 1.6250 & lower.

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

1.6124

1.6220

1.6323

1.6419

1.6522

 


GBP-INR APRIL 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it opened at 72.2225 & this itself was the low of week. It then continue to rise to mark the high of week at 72.9975 to finally close at 72.6800. For the coming week we see it marking a new high at few tick above 72.9975 on optimistic note or commence straight decline to 72.16 7 lower.  In our view aggressive  swing trader should go short around.72.70 range with the stop placed at 73.10 for the target of 72.16 & then 71.80.                                                              

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

71.8583

72.2691

72.6333

73.0441

73.4083



USD-JPY:- Last week it made the low of 82.95 against our expectation of the 82.70-83.00.For the coming week  we are expecting it to bounce to 84.00-84.25 & future course will depend on the price behavior at that level & will be reported on daily basis.  In our view aggressive  swing trader should go long  around 83.00 with the tight stop of 82.75 for the target of 84.25-84.00.                                             

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

81.5413

82.3276

83.7423

84.5346

85.9493

       


JPY-INR MARCH 2011 MCX-SX FUTURE :-Last week it made the high of 53.70 exactly at our estimated level & commenced the decline. We now  see  it heading for the 51.77 & lower. In our view aggressive  swing trader should go short on any rally  with the stops of 53.70 for the target of 52.00 & lower.                                                     

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

51.3167

52.3334

53.0167

54.0334

54.7167



IN OUR VIEW THERE WILL BE LOT OF VOLATILITY IN JPYINR & ALONGWITH THERE WILL BE MASSIVE INCREASE IN VOLUME.THIS WILL OFFER IMMENCE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE TRADERS & ARBITRAGERS.EARLY BIRDS PAYING ATTENTION ON THESE CONTRACTS WOULD FIND LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY & EDGE OVER THE OTHERS.NOTE THAT USDJPY HAS REVERSED AFTER BREACHING THE 15 YEAR LOW & WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MULTIMONTH & MULTIFOLD RISE ACCOMPANYING THIS RALLY.

 

 

 

 THIS IS THE PORTRAY OF GENERAL BROADER MARKET VIEW WITHOUT ANY SPECIFIC STRATEGY & SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUIED AS SPECIFIC CALLS.FOR THE MORE POIGNANT VIEW ON MARKET,WINNING STRATEGY & PIN POINT TIMELY PRICE LEVEL CALLS, CONTACT US  TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OUR PREMIUM SERVICES.           

 

      WRITER WELCOMES ANY SUGGESTIONS,FEEDBACK OR QUERY AT INFO@JKDVIEWPOINT.COM.                   


 

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