Weekly Commodity Outlook

GOLD:-Last week's price action has reinforced the bullish trend & inclined for the extended target (1510).For the coming week we see initially a reaction towards the 1472-1480 range & then heading for the new high 1491-1499. In our view this blow off & volatile move conservative traders should refrain from trading. Aggressive trader may go long around 1475 with the  stop  of 1465 for 1491-1499.In rupee terms buy at 21450 with the stop of 21375 for the target of 21650 or above in JUNE 2011 MCX FUTURE.

SILVER:- Last week's price action has surpassed the all our targets & clearly established that it is in full blow off mode & would reach it's extended target of 44.00 & higher.  We suggest conservative traders to stay away. However aggressive trader may go long around 42.20 with  stop of 41.90 for the target of 43.75-44.00. In rupee terms buy MAY 2011 MCX FUTURE 61800 with the stop of 61500  for the target zone of 63000-63300.

 



CRUDE:-Last week on very first day it had formed the BEARISH ENGULFING LINE & for the whole of the week remained below that. In our view as long as it remains above the maroon colour trend line it is bullish & decisive penetration below this will be bearish. For the coming week we expect it to react to 108.25-108.85 range & then bounce towards the 114.00.We recommend going long around 108.50  with stop of 107.50 for the target of 114 or higher. In rupee terms buy around  4860-4880 with the stop of 4820  for the  targets of 4960 & higher   in MAY 2011 FUT MCX.


NATURALGAS:-Last week it had shown the expected recovery but the time had run short to achieve target. We are maintaining the same view with the same target.  We recommend holding long entered  at 4035  with the raised stop of 4060 for the target of 4400. In rupee terms  hold long entered at 178  with the stop of 182 for the targets of 196 & higher  for APRIL 2011 FUT MCX.



COPPER:-Copper had breached the maroon colour trend line downward & went down till 423.25.For the coming week we initially see bounce to 430-433 & then move down towards the 406-410.We recommend selling short  around 430 with the tight stop of 438 for the target of 406-410 .In rupee terms sell at  425 with the stop 428 for the target of 412 & lower in APRIL 2011 FUTURE AT MCX.



LEAD:- Last week it made the high of 2904 with the formation of EVENING STAR indicating the termination of the major pattern on upside. For the coming week we are expecting the bounce to 2715-2750 zone as the correction of the  decline from 2904-2660.Then we are looking for the fresh decline towards 2400 in next 3-4 weeks. We recommend the short position at 2735   with the stop of 2765 for the target of 2400. In rupee terms sell around 124-125 with the   stop   of 126 for the target of 113 or lower in MAY 2011 MCX FUTURE.


NICKEL:- Nickel  formed the EVENING STAR pattern in daily last week & went down. However it received the support at lower line of the rising channel. We maintain our bullish view with the target of 29500. We recommend  holding the long  position  with the stop of 25000 for the target of 29500.In rupee terms hold the long position  of 1150 with the stop of 1130 for the target of 1265 & 1325  in APRIL 2011 MCX FUTURE.



ZINC:- ZINC has been laggard & did not move in tandem with its peers. However it is forming the ascending triangle & ideally should break out upside. The oscillators are displaying bearish signal. Probably pattern failure or the overshoot of last leg of triangle. Under such conflicting signals we would like to wait for further unfolding of data for clarity & skip any call till then.

 



ALUMINIUM:-Aluminium  has  crossed the 2650 barrier last week decisively. We see it finding the resistance at 2745.Since it has already run up long & this may be its last move up. We recommend selling short above 2725 with the stop of 2775 for the target of 2500 or lower.In rupee terms sell at 124 with the stop of 126 for the target of 118 at MCX MAY 2011 FUTURE.

 

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