WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK

GOLD:- Gold  opened at 1430,  made the low of 1429.10 & made the high of 1476.4 & closed at 1474.10.This was exactly within our estimated normal range of 1473-1483.However last week's price action has negated the undershoot target & we are compelled to shift to normal(1480) & extended target(1510).In our view this blow off & volatile move conservative traders should refrain from trading. Aggressive trader may short sell around 1510 or on breach of 1462 with the appropriate stop for 1440.In rupee terms sell at 21650 or on breach of 21250 for 20900.


SILVER:- Last week's price action has surpassed the all our targets & clearly established that it is in full blow off mode & would reach it's extended target of 44.00 & higher. IT IS TYPICAL HABIT OF SILVER THAT IN LAST STAGE IT RISES LIKE ROCKET & FALLS EVEN FASTER THAN THAT. We suggest conservative traders to stay away. However aggressive trader may sell short around 44.00 on breach of reddish brown trend line with appropriate stop for the target of 39.80. In rupee terms sell MAY 2011 MCX FUTURE 64500 with the stop of 65500  for the target zone of 59500-59750.



CRUDE:-Last week' price action has established beyond doubt that  it is in the strong uptrend & will attempt for  higher target of 118.00.  However at that juncture it will be terminating the larger degree pattern & reversal will be quite swift, sharp & ferocious. We recommend going short around 118 or on breach of reddish brown colour trend line with appropriate stop for the target of 108.85 or lower. In rupee terms sell above  5250 with the stop of 5350 or on breach of trend line for the  targets of 4860 & lower   in April 2011 FUT MCX.




NATURALGAS:-Last week it preferred to consolidate than to move north. It  has breached the support at 4200 & trying to find the support at 4000.We see a recovery to set  in sooner than later. We recommend going long  at 4035  with the stop of 4000 for the target of 4400. In rupee terms  go long at 178  with the stop of 174 for the targets of 196 & higher  for APRIL 2011 FUT MCX.




COPPER:-Copper has also turned up from downtrend last week like all other commodities. We see it retesting the 463-465 zone. However this target may be shortened hence we do not advise long positions. We recommend selling short  around 465 with the tight stop of 470 or on breach of reddish brown trend line for the target of 443 .In rupee terms sell at  452 with the stop 460 for the target of 435 & lower in APRIL 2011 FUTURE AT MCX.



LEAD:- Last week it made the high of 2870 exactly at our estimated level. We are expecting some correction from these levels. However it may be difficult to ascertain the depth of correction.  We recommend the short position either around 2800  with the stop of 2825 for the target of 2620. In rupee terms sell around 136 with the   stop   of 138 for the target of 128 or lower in APRIL 2011 MCX FUTURE.



NICKEL:- Nickel  formed the MORNING STAR pattern in daily last week. It is a reliable reversal bullish pattern. In accordance with that it is moving in the north direction towards the 29500.We recommend  holding the long  position  with the stop of 24800 for the target of 29500.In rupee terms hold the long position  of 1150 with the stop of 1130 for the target of 1265 & 1325  in APRIL 2011 MCX FUTURE.


ZINC:- ZINC has been laggard & did not move in tandem with its peers. However lately it has  shown some bullishness. We are bullish on it & see it at least testing the 2650 level. We recommend long position at 2534 with the stop of 2500 for the target of 2650.In rupee terms buy at 112 with the stop of 110 for the target of 118 in APRIL 2011 MCX FUTURE.

ALUMINIUM:-Aluminium  has  crossed the 2650 barrier last week decisively. We see it finding the resistance at 2825.Since it has already run up long & this may be its last move up. We recommend selling short at 2825 with the stop of 2875 for the target of 2600.In rupee terms sell at 126 with the stop of 128 for the target of 120 at MCX APRIL 2011 FUTURE.




 

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