WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK

SILVER:- Last week's price action has surpassed the all our targets & clearly established that it is in full blow off mode & would reach it's extended target of 44.00 & higher. IT IS TYPICAL HABIT OF SILVER THAT IN LAST STAGE IT RISES LIKE ROCKET & FALLS EVEN FASTER THAN THAT. We suggest conservative traders to stay away. However aggressive trader may sell short around 44.00 on breach of reddish brown trend line with appropriate stop for the target of 39.80. In rupee terms sell MAY 2011 MCX FUTURE 64500 with the stop of 65500 for the target zone of 59500-59750.

CRUDE:-Last week' price action has established beyond doubt that it is in the strong uptrend & will attempt for higher target of 118.00. However at that juncture it will be terminating the larger degree pattern & reversal will be quite swift, sharp & ferocious. We recommend going short around 118 or on breach of reddish brown colour trend line with appropriate stop for the target of 108.85 or lower. In rupee terms sell above 5250 with the stop of 5350 or on breach of trend line for the targets of 4860 & lower in April 2011 FUT MCX.

NATURALGAS:-Last week it preferred to consolidate than to move north. It has breached the support at 4200 & trying to find the support at 4000.We see a recovery to set in sooner than later. We recommend going long at 4035 with the stop of 4000 for the target of 4400. In rupee terms go long at 178 with the stop of 174 for the targets of 196 & higher for APRIL 2011 FUT MCX.

COPPER:-Copper has also turned up from downtrend last week like all other commodities. We see it retesting the 463-465 zone. However this target may be shortened hence we do not advise long positions. We recommend selling short around 465 with the tight stop of 470 or on breach of reddish brown trend line for the target of 443 .In rupee terms sell at 452 with the stop 460 for the target of 435 & lower in APRIL 2011 FUTURE AT MCX.

LEAD:- Last week it made the high of 2870 exactly at our estimated level. We are expecting some correction from these levels. However it may be difficult to ascertain the depth of correction. We recommend the short position either around 2800 with the stop of 2825 for the target of 2620. In rupee terms sell around 136 with the stop of 138 for the target of 128 or lower in APRIL 2011 MCX FUTURE.
NICKEL:- Nickel formed the MORNING STAR pattern in daily last week. It is a reliable reversal bullish pattern. In accordance with that it is moving in the north direction towards the 29500.We recommend holding the long position with the stop of 24800 for the target of 29500.In rupee terms hold the long position of 1150 with the stop of 1130 for the target of 1265 & 1325 in APRIL 2011 MCX FUTURE.
ZINC:- ZINC has been laggard & did not move in tandem with its peers. However lately it has shown some bullishness. We are bullish on it & see it at least testing the 2650 level. We recommend long position at 2534 with the stop of 2500 for the target of 2650.In rupee terms buy at 112 with the stop of 110 for the target of 118 in APRIL 2011 MCX FUTURE.
ALUMINIUM:-Aluminium has crossed the 2650 barrier last week decisively. We see it finding the resistance at 2825.Since it has already run up long & this may be its last move up. We recommend selling short at 2825 with the stop of 2875 for the target of 2600.In rupee terms sell at 126 with the stop of 128 for the target of 120 at MCX APRIL 2011 FUTURE.



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