USD-INR DEC 2010 FUTURE

Last week  on the first two days it declined sharply to 44.8300 & then bounced to mark the high of the week at 45.5025 & finally closed at 45.2075.We had estimated the downside target of 44.70-44.80 zone & on the upside 45.515-45.595 zone. We are fast approaching the CHRISMAS holidays & market activity from overseas will be lighter & in yearend winding mode. For the coming week we see it initially bouncing to 45.37-45.42 levels & then drifting down to 44.97-44.86 zone with much lesser momentum in comparison to what we have seen in last two swing decline. We are expecting near the week end some recovery to 45.10-45.15. We advise swing & positional traders to  short in 45.37-45.42 with the stop of 45.45 for the target range of 44.86-44.97. Scalpers & intraday traders should trade on both side as shown in the chart with the appropriate wave trajectory.

CAVEAT:- Due to year end considerations FII's any booking on dollar or rupee can make the market swing wildly on lower volumes. Traders are warned to remain very agile for any undue price fluctuations & should adhere to strict stop along with the lower exposure.

EURO-USD

Contrary to our expectation it moved down & made the low of 1.3162 & remained more of sideways in the 1.3175-1.3320 with low momentum & slight negative bias on low volume. These are good indications of strong consolidation & this is an essential prerequisite for the next move up. Such consolidations are followed by the news events & gap openings. For the coming week we are expecting the same thing once the price pierces the blue color line on upside as shown in the chart. This should have high momentum, large volume & swift. We have initially set the target of this move at 1.3710-1.3810 which we would keep refining in daily report as it progresses. However we do not rule out a small low below 1.3162  but no lower than 1.3140 in the initial days of week  With this logic in mind  positional(swing) trader should trade  long on cross above the with the strong positive  bias with the blue color trendline with the stop of 1.3140 for the target of 1.3780 or above. Intraday traders & scalpers are advised to trade on both side of this movement as long as it remains below blue color trendline & oncetrendline crossed trade long side only.

 EURO-INR DEC 2010 FUTURE

On the similar line of EUR/USD this has also failed to move up & preferred to consolidate further.This consolidation is about to end & we do not see it breaching 59.80 in any case. We are expecting the break out once this crosses the 60.01. We advise swing traders to go long on any cross above the 60.01 with the stop of  59.90  for the target of 60.55-60.68 & higher.Scalpers & intraday traders should trade with the strong positive bias for upside.