USD-INR DEC 2010 FUTURE

Last week it made the high of 46.3550 against our estimated range of 46.35-46.40.It then declined sharply to mark the low of 45.2525 & our weekly estimate was of 45.51-45.69.Thankfully we have revised this  target on daily report to  45.26-44.98.Theoretically it should bounce & in our estimate it should come to test the range of 45.515-45.595 & as an extreme case it may stretch up to 45.65 which we see as very low probability. Ideally it should oscillate in 45.46-45.55 range 2-3 times before moving down for new low but in such strong down movement it may not do so & may straight move down to 44.70 zone.  We advise scalpers & intraday traders to trade the trading range 45.25-45-55 with slight negative bias on both side  but once trading range breached downside trade sell side with strong negative bias. Swing traders are advised to short sell near 45.55 with the stop of 45.65 for the target of 44.98 & below.

EURO-USD

 Last week it made the low of 1.2966 against our estimated range of 1.2800-1.2920 & bounced off sharply  to mark the high of the week at 1.3438  & closed at the 1.3396.It has formed the inverted hammer or swing reversal last week. This implies that downtrend has reversed for the uptrend. The momentum in this up move is stronger than what it was being seen in the downtrend. It means it will rise back to 1.3786 in lesser time than what it took in decline from 1.3786 to 1.2966..With this logic in mind  positional(swing) trader should trade  long if they get entry around 1.3380 with the strong positive  bias with the stop of 1.3290 for the target of 1.3780 or above. Intraday traders & scalpers are advised to trade on both side of this movement with the tighter stop for the short positions whereas long position can be hold little longer with lenient stop as bias is strongly positive.

 EURO-INR DEC 2010 FUTURE

Last week it made the low  of 59.4125 in DEC series & bounced off. It had formed the INVERTED HAMMER in daily chart on Thursday & on Friday formed the white candle thereby confirming the bottom & reversal of trend. However the momentum has been lower in comparison to what we saw in EUROUSD. This we hope to pick up with the progress of time. If it does not do for long then we will be forced to conclude that INR is not appreciating as fast as EURO is doing against the USD. For the coming week we see first target at 61.05 & as we are expecting if momentum picks up it may go to 62.25. We advise swing traders to go long on any decline with the stop of 59.85 for the target of 61.05 & then 62.25.Scalpers & intraday traders should trade with the strong positive bias for upside.