WEEKLY CURRENCY REPORTS

USD-INR:- Last week it made the low of 43.86 against our expectation of the 43.65.However for the coming week we still see the downtrend continuing & we revise our targets further downward to 43.10 & then 42.80  On the downside we see these as normal target & as a stretched case it may reach 42.10.On the upside it has resistances at 44.10 & 44.40.We recommend selling short USDINR NOV.MCX FUTURE at or above 44.20 with the stop of 44.60 for the target of 43.45 & then 43.15.It is the risky trade as major reversal any time hence keep system stop.

EURO-INR:-At last week's high of 63.095 it has terminated  five wave pattern from the bottom of 55.37 formed on the 7th June,2010.This has been confirmed by the  long BEARISH ENGULFING LINE on the last of working. We recommend selling short NOV MCX FUTURE at 62.20 with the stop of 62.55 for the target of 61.40 & then 60.20.




GBP-INR:-   It has terminated the long drawn 4th wave at 69.37 in last few days. We are expecting  the 5th wave rise to 75.00 with poor momentum, time consuming & laboured one. However for the coming week we see sideways movement & this is best can be utilised by scalpers on intraday basis. We would just like to avoid giving any call for the week in present structure of the market.


 

JPY-INR:-  We are expecting one more rise towards the target of 56.55-57.90 range to terminate the five wave pattern which began from the 46.756 low of May,2010.However the rise will be very laboured one with poor momentum with high risk on long side. We would suggest to remain in sidelined till it regains momentum mode.



EURO-USD:-  In our view it is the terminal move of the wave began from 1.1877 & hence expect it to rise with the poor quality of momentum. On the shorter term chart it still shows one more up move balance over the 1..4282.Therefore we recommend selling short on rise above 1..4282 with the stop of 1.4350 or on breach of 1.4000 with the stop of 1.4100 for the target 1.3750.




GBP-USD:- GBP had commenced the up move from 20th May ,2010 low of 1.4229 & this is in the terminal stages of termination. In our estimate it can still rise to 1.6600 level. We do not recommend any call as the risk to reward ratio is not favourable for traders on either side.

 

    

 

USD-JPY:- The current down trend which began from 94.98 in May 2010, is in the terminal stage of completion. Though we still see the bounce to 80.80 in coming week & then final plunge to 79.40, we are hesitant to recommend any call. Let the confirmation of reversal of trend come & we will take the call as it is highly risky at the moment.



   

DOLLAR-INDEX:- On the similar lines to EURO,GBP & JPY THE DOLLAR INDEX is in the terminal stages of completion of decline which began from May-June 2010.We see it still scratching the level of 74.60.However we are prepared for the any overshoot or undershoot of the wave in terminal stages.

 

                                                    

 

 

 

 

 

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