WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK (08-11-2010)

SILVER:- Silver made the high of 26.915 against our estimated range of 26.60-27.30.It is in blow off rise mode like gold & should make one more high above 26.915 before reacting sharply down. We recommend selling short on breach of 26.38 with the stop of high made during the week for the target range of 23.95-24.25.In rupee terms we recommend short position in Dec MCX future on breach of 38900 with the stop of high made during the week for the target range of 36200-36100.

CRUDE:- Crude made the high of 87.43 against our estimate of the 87.08. However for the coming week there may be small tick above 87.43 but not above 89.00.We recommend short position above 87.43 with the stop of 89.50 for the target of 84.30-84.10 range.In rupee terms we recommend short selling above 3850 with the stop of 3890 for the target of 3760 -3730 range at MCX NOV FUTURE.

NATURALGAS:- Natural gas could not cross decisively 4145 & made the low of 3743. We still see some consolidation as well as correction. Hence buying should be either done at a decline or on the crossover of 4145 resistance for the target of 4680.We recommend buy on any decline to 3800 with the stop of 3700 for the target of 4680.In rupee terms buy Nov. MCX future at 172 with the stop of 165 for the target of 192.

COPPER:-Copper did not declined as expected & on the contrary started rise. For the coming week we see it declining to 391-388 range & then rising to 405-408 range. We recommend going long at 388-391 with the stop of 385 for the target range of 405-408 or higher. In rupee terms buy at 379-381 with the stop of 373 for the target of 395 & above in Nov. MCX future.

LEAD:- Last week it consolidated in the range of 2426 to 2565. We maintain our last week's expectation that it should make one more high above 2619 somewhere near to 2710 to terminate the large wave pattern. We recommend holding long position of 2449 with the stop of 2400 for the target of 2700 & above. In rupee terms hold the long NOV.MCX future at 108 with the stop of 106 for the target of 118 in next two weeks.

NICKEL:- Nickel made the high of 24849 against our estimate of 24000. However for the coming week we expect it to decline to 24100-200 range & then rise to 25800 level. We recommend buying long at 24200 with the stop of 23800 for the target of 25800.In rupee terms buy at 1075 with the stop of 1068 for the target of 1105 or higher at NOV MCX future.

ZINC:- Last week it moved on expected line & did not breach 23380 & moved to 2579. We maintain our last week's view of one more up wave to 2736-2880 range & therefore recommend to hold the long of 2423 with the stop of 2375 for the target above 2736.In rupee terms hold the buy of NOV.MCX FUTURE at 108 with the stop of 106 for the target of 118 in next two weeks.

ALUMINIUM:- Last week it made the top of 2493 against our estimate of 2431.For the coming week we see it reacting towards 2400 initially & then moving to 2675. We recommend going long at 2400 with the stop of 2350 for the target of 2650.In rupee terms buy around 106.50 with the stop of 104 for the target of 111.75 at NOV. MCX FUTURE.



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