WEEKLY CURRENCY REPORT (01-11-2010)

USD-INR:- It is in the terminal stages of completion of the downtrend which began from 47.145 from the month of May 2010.However for the coming week we see initially a bounce to 44.65 & at max to 45.05 & then head for downside. On the downside we see 43.65 as normal target & as a stretched case it may reach 43.10.We recommend selling short USDINR NOV.MCX FUTURE at or above 45.10 with the stop of 45.60 for the target of 44.05 & then 43.50.It is the risky trade.

EURO-INR:-It is in the terminal stages of five wave completion from the bottom of 55.37 formed on the 7th June,2010.We see feeble & final rally to 63.00 level at max. & from there on we see a down move to 60.65 & 59.35.We recommend selling short NOV MCX FUTURE at 63.10 with the stop of 63.25 for the target of 60.80 & then 59.50.




GBP-INR:-   It has terminated the long drawn 4th wave at 69.37 in last few days. We are expecting  the 5th wave rise to 75.00 with poor momentum, time consuming & laboured one. We recommend going long on NOV MCX FUTURE at 71.20 with the stop of 70.50 for the target of 75.00 in next 3-4 weeks.



JPY-INR:-  We are expecting one more rise towards the target of 56.55-57.90 range to terminate the five wave pattern which began from the 46.756 low of May,2010.We recommend long position at NOV MCX FUTURE at 55.35 with the stop of 54.85 for the target range of 56.80-58.15.



EURO-USD:- From the 1.4159 it has corrected for two weeks till 1.3732 & commenced the up move. In our view it is the terminal move of the wave began from 1.1877 & hence expect it to rise with the poor quality of momentum towards the target range of 1.4200-1.4250.We recommend going long at 1.3940 with the stop of 1.3880 for the target range of 1.42-1.425

 

 

GBP-USD:- GBP had commenced the up move from 20th May ,2010 low of 1.4229 & this is in the terminal stages of termination. In our estimate it can still rise to 1.6320 level. We do not recommend any call as the risk to reward ratio is not favourable for traders on either side.

 

 

USD-JPY:- The current down trend which began from 94.98 in May 2010, is in the terminal stage of completion. Though we still see the bounce to 80.80 in coming week & then final plunge to 79.40, we are hesitant to recommend any call. Let the confirmation of reversal of trend come & we will take the call as it is highly risky at the moment.



DOLLAR-INDEX:- On the similar lines to EURO,GBP & JPY THE DOLLAR INDEX is in the terminal stages of completion of decline which began from May-June 2010.We see it still scratching the level of 74.60.However we are prepared for the any overshoot or undershoot of the wave in terminal stages.

 

 

 

 

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