WEEKLY CURRENCY REPORT (18-10-10)

USD-INR:- Last week it made the low of 43.97. As shown in the chart the declining momentum of  last few weeks is waning with some stabilisation in price. It has the strong support at 43.80 & resistance at 44.75 therefore we are expecting a corrective bounce to 44.60-44.70 range. Thereafter it should decline for a new low. Aggressive trader may take the chance of going long USDINR OCT FUT MCXSX at 44.20 with the stop of 44.05 for the target  range of 44.80-44.95.


EURO-INR:-It is in the terminal stages of five wave completion from the bottom of 55.37 formed on the 7th June,2010.We see feeble chances of crossing 62.52 high of last week. Even if it crosses marginally above 62.52,it ought to correct to 59.30 level with intermittent support  at 60.65. We recommend selling short the EURINR OCT MCXSX FUT at 62.21 with the stop of 62.75 for the target of 61.20 & 59.90.




GBP-INR:-   It has strong support at 69.85 & resistance at 71.20.However the upside momentum is very poor & it is likely to consolidate for some more time before rising. In such case we would prefer to skip giving any call.

 

 

JPY-INR:-  It has good support at 53.00 & strong resistance at 54.85.For the last week it oscillated within 53.77-54.46 range exactly on the expected line. We are expecting the unveiling of the third leg in the coming week towards the 51.00.We recommend short selling the JPYINR OCT FUT MCXSX at 54.47 with the stop of 54.85 for the target of 51.00.




EURO-USD:- Last week EURO made the high of 1.4159 indicating slowdown in momentum & anvil of correction. It has good supports at 1.3780 & if it is breached violently then larger correction will come otherwise it will revert back to its uptrend.  We recommend selling short in & around 1.4000 with the stop of 1.41 for the target of 1.3780.



GBP-USD:- GBP has made the high of 1.6108 with the SHOOTING STAR formation. We see it retracing to 1.5780.If 1.5780 is violently breached then it may test the level of 1.5400 otherwise it may resume its upward movement from the 1.5780 level. We recommend selling short at 1.5990 level with the stop of 1.6100 for the target of 1.5780.

 

 

USD-JPY:- Last week it made the low of 80.88 & its last 15 year low is 79.80. Ideally it should bounce from here. However the upside momentum is just not developing & we may not be surprised if scratches nominally new bottoms. Under such conditions we prefer to avoid giving any calls & be neutral.



DOLLAR-INDEX:- It is now under severe declining trend. Last week it made the low of 76.335. In our opinion it has formed the bottom with the 90% chances. For the coming week we see a pause in decline or some sideways movements.

 

 

 

 

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