NIFTY KNOCKING THE DOOR OF 6300-6400 CHAKRAVYUH  

      Last week nifty opened at 6018.30 &  then went down to 5963.60 to register the low of the week. It then rose  relentlessly to mark the high at 6153.10 & finally closed the  week at 6143.40.Thus it gained 125.10 points over the previous week which is 2.10%  approximately.

RETROSPECT: - We  are long on nifty as well as market from 5660 & holding the position with the stop of 5920 for the target of 6200.We would now tighten the stop further to 6080 & revise the target to 6250-6300.

SENTIMENTS: - There is sea change in sentiments with the cross of 6000 & massive inflow of FII, sentiments is just not positive but turning into party time.We still would not like to call the inception of frenzy however there is very thin line of demarkation.it.Participants have started hunting for beaten down,oversold sectors & stocks which are turning up with market to catch the lost ground.This is leading the bull fire to more wide spread sectors & stocks.

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: -   We have drawn the daily chart below & shown the wave count from the 4786.45.It has completed the five wave sequence at 5549.80 & then unfolded the zigzag correction till 5348.90.We would prefer to label this rise (4786.45-5549.80) as wave (1) of larger degree & decline till 5348.90 as wave (2).The ongoing rise is the part of the wave (3) & may continue for some more time. The current rise is THIRD WAVE & they hold the wonders for investors. We see the initial target in the range of 6250-6325 & in 80% probability it should react from this level if market holds the sanity. However the way market is accelerating we would like to include the lower probability(20%) of hitting the target of 6950 minimum once it crosses the 6335 level. Remember this lower probability will become higher probability will become high probable case ONLY ABOVE THE 6335.

On the larger time frame the weekly chart we have shown  the most probable wave count. However to elaborate on this we need some more unfolding of price data which hopefully we should be able to throw better light on course of the action in the market.

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- Last week it has  again formed the WHITE MORUBOZU as shown in the chart above.This is the fourth WHITE MORUBOZU in a row & speaks lot about the underlying strength of the trend & future appreciation.We would draw attention of the readers to compare the weekly candles of current rise with the rise of 2009 as shown in the chart & characteristics of the later part of the current rise may be visualised.

CHART PATTERN:-  The upwardly tilted RECTANGLE FORMATION has been breached on upside.This is the 10-12 months consolidation within 700-800 points.The break out from such pattern has far reaching consequences on the next move.The present run up has met all the conditions of genuine break out.

OSCILLATORS READING:-  The daily RSI & MACD has  reached over bought levels  & indicates the short term  bullish to continue.The weekly RSI,STOCHASTIC & MACD  have also turned positive indicating further gains in the store.

SECTOR ANALYSIS:-  This week we are analysing the METAL sector.It has been consolidating in the range of  18000-14000  18000-14000 for last five months.In fact in the current rally this sector has underperformed to great extent on global cues.With the SAIL increasing prices & stocks coming out of hibernation.We see it reaching the target of 22500 from the current level of 17500.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS:-  

(1)BUY SESAGOA AT 345 WITH THE STOP OF 337 FOR THE TARGET OF 375.

(2)BUY JINDALSWHL AT 2190 WITH THE STOP OF 2100 FOR THE TARGET OF 2500 OR ABOVE.

(3)BUY MCLEODRUSS AT 243.5 WITH THE STOP OF 235 FOR THE TARGET OF 282. 

(4)BUY UCOBANK AT 117 WITH THE STOP OF 112 FOR THE TARGET OF 135.

(5)BUY JINDALSTEL  AT 740 WITH THE STOP OF THE 730 FOR THE TARGET OF 780.

PULSE-READING:-  JKD SOUL VOICE SAYS  TWO THINGS

   (1) KEEP YOUR RATIONALITY ASIDE... JOIN THE MADNESS OF BUYING FRENZY... MOOD IS JUST SPREADING & THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PRICE APPRECIATION & TIME TO GET OUT BEFORE THE HANG OVER VANISHES FOR LOGIC ,RATIONALITY  & SANITY TO PREVAIL AGAIN.

(2)BITE THAT MUCH WHAT YOU CAN CHEW WITH HAJMOLA (STOPLOSS) ELSE YOU WILL HAVE TO VOMMIT.

SAMAJHANEWALE SAMAJH GAYE, NA SAMJHE WO ANARI HAI.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-  Keep strict watch on the 6040 for any long position. FRENZY HAS JUST BEGAN JOIN THE PARTY & ENJOY IT.