WILL NIFTY BE ABLE TO CROSS 6357 IN FIRST ATTEMPT?

      Last week nifty opened at 5885.05 &  this itself was the low of the week. It then rose  relentlessly to mark the high at 6037.40 & finally closed the  week at 6018.30.Thus it gained 133.35 points over the previous week which is 2.30%  approximately.

RETROSPECT: - We  are long on nifty as well as market from 5660 & holding the position with the stop of 5720 for the target of 6100.We would now revise the stop loss to 5920 & target to 6200 & above.

SENTIMENTS: - There is sea change in sentiments with the cross of 6000 & massive inflow of FII, sentiments is just not positive but turning into party time.We still would not like to call the inception of frenzy however it is not too far off.The eternal pessimist have now the new tune of all time high resistance & double top.Participants have started hunting for beaten down,oversold sectors & stocks which are turning up with market to catch the lost ground.This is leading the bull fire to more wide spread sectors & stocks.

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: -   We have drawn the daily chart below & shown the wave count from the 4786.45.It has completed the five wave sequence at 5549.80 & then unfolded the zigzag correction till 5348.90.We would prefer to label this rise (4786.45-5549.80) as wave (1) of larger degree & decline till 5348.90 as wave (2).The ongoing rise is the part of the wave (3) & may continue for some more time.

    On the larger time frame the weekly chart we have shown  the most probable wave count. However to elaborate on this we need some more unfolding of price data which hopefully we should be able to throw better light on course of the action in the market.

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- Last week it has  again formed the WHITE MORUBOZU as shown in the chart above.This is the third WHITE MORUBOZU in a row & speaks lot about the underlying strength of the trend & future appreciation.

CHART PATTERN:-  The upwardly tilted RECTANGLE FORMATION has been breached on upside.This is the 10-12 months consolidation within 700-800 points.The break out from such pattern has far reaching consequences on the next move.The present run up has met all the conditions of genuine break out.

OSCILLATORS READING:-  The daily RSI & MACD has  turned up & indicates the short term  bullish atleast.The weekly RSI,STOCHASTIC & MACD  have also turned positive indicating further gains in the store.

SECTOR ANALYSIS:-  This week we are analysing the POWER sector.It has been consolidating in the range of 2800-3300 for last one year in the form of a HORIZONTAL RECTANGLE.It is about to break out from this range & in fact the momentum oscillators have already been broken out.We are expecting at least 25% appreciation in next 3 months.Our target is 4000 to 4500.

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS:-  

(1)BUY EKC AT 125 WITH THE STOP OF 122 FOR THE TARGET OF 136.

(2)BUY FEDERALBANK AT 390 WITH THE STOP OF 385 FOR THE TARGET OF 416.

(3)BUY BRFL AT 267 WITH THE STOP OF 262 FOR THE TARGET OF 320. 

(4)BUY BHARTIARTL AT 368 WITH THE STOP OF 360 FOR THE TARGET OF 420.

(5)BUY ORCHIDCHEM  AT 208 WITH THE STOP OF THE 202 FOR THE TARGET OF 225.

PULSE-READING:-  JKD SOUL VOICE SAYS THAT KEEP YOUR RATIONALITY ASIDE... JOIN THE MADNESS OF BUYING FRENZY... MOOD IS JUST SPREADING & THERE WILL BE ENOUGH PRICE APPRECIATION & TIME TO GET OUT BEFORE THE HANG OVER VANISHES FOR LOGIC ,RATIONALITY  & SANITY TO PREVAIL AGAIN.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-  Keep strict watch on the 5900 for any long position. FRENZY HAS JUST BEGAN JOIN THE PARTY & ENJOY IT.