WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK (20-09-10)

EURO-INR:-Last week on expected line it made the high of the 60.7087.We expect from here to unveil the third wave on the downside & this may find initially support near the 58.50 for next week. We recommend selling short the EURINR SEPT MCXSX FUT at 60.50 with the stop of 60.80 for the target of 59.00 or lower.

GBP-INR:- It has been declining within the downward channel & for the coming week we see it to decline to the level of 70.20 & then any meaning ful bounce may emerge. We recommend selling short the GBPINR SEPT FUT MCXSX at 71.96 with the stop of 72.70 for the target of 70.50.
JPY-INR:- On the expected line it has formed the top of 56.125 & then broken out of the rising wedge. It then made the low of the week at 53.386 & closed there. We expect a bounce to 53.50 after the initial stabilisation. We see it then heading to 51.25 or lower. We recommend selling short above 53.40 with the stop of 54.00 for the target of 52.90 initially & then 51.25 for the Sept. Future MCXSX contract. EURO-USD:- Last week it made the high of 1.3159 & declined sharply. Initially we see a bounce to 1.13105 & then commence fresh decline. This fresh decline can either of two routes as shown in the chart. The less preferred one is the slow decay to 1.2970 & the more preferred one is sharp decline to 1.2880 area. This will decide the overall course of future action. We recommend selling short on bounce to 1.3100 with the stop of the 1.3115 for the targets 1.2970 or 1.2880. GBP-USD:- GBP has made the high of 1.5728 on the expected line. For the coming week we are expecting it to decline slowly to 1.5370 area. We recommend selling short with the stop of the 1.5730 for the target near 1.5370. USD-JPY:- USDJPY has made the low of 82.87 against our expectation of 83.00 & then rose to make the high of 85.93 whereas we expected 85.20.We are of the view that for coming week it will not go down below 85.00 & upside will attempt to cross the 88.00.We recommend going long on any decline near 85.00 level with the stop of 84.80 for the target of 88.00 or above. DOLLAR-INDEX:- It has declined last week to 81.075 against our expectation of rise. We see now for coming week the bounce to 82.30 level & if crossed then to 83.70. 







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