WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK

GOLD:- Gold has been rising from 1155.60 to 1264.70 without any substantial correction. At the same time we are of the view that it has completed the five wave pattern on upside & facing the resistance of the all time high of 1266.From the Fibonacci retracement point of view 1237.4 & 1223.1 are the 25% & 38.2% levels respectively. From the EWT point of view it should come to test the range of 1239.5-1211.70.We recommend buying around 1225  with the stop of 1210 for the target of 1275.In rupee terms buy at 18865 with the stop of 18500 for 19500.


SILVER:-  Last week silver made the low of 19.68 against our estimated level of 19.70.Now we are able to calculate the precise  range of on the upside. According to our estimate it should minimum go to20.52 & ideally may touch the range of  20.52-20.78. However it will not cross  21.05 in any case if our wave count is correct. We advise holding the long entered at 19.70  with the stop of 19.50 for the target  range of 20.52-20.78.In rupee terms hold Dec MCX FUT entered at 31250 with the stop 30830 for the target of 32500.




CRUDE:- It is about to break down from the inverted flag  pattern. In terms of EWT it has formed the 1-2 & 1-2 pattern. Both have very bearish connotations. On the upside there is resistance at 76.90 &78.30.We recommend selling short at any bounce with the stop of 78.35 for the target of 64.00 & then at 57.16.In rupee terms sell above 3580 with the stop of 3620 for the target of 3350 or lower in Sept Future at MCX..




NATURALGAS:- Natural gas has terminated the larger wave on downside at 3693.The Fibonacci retracement of 25% & 38.25 comes at 4022 & 4195 respectively. From the EWT perspective it should test the range 4029-4091 on upside. We are looking for bounce to 4091 area. We recommend buy at 3939 current market price with the stop of the3810 for the target of 4091 & above. We recommend buy at Sept Future MCX around 179.5 with the stop of the 174 for the target of 195 & above.



COPPER:- Copper has completed the five wave pattern at 353.45 then it should ideally come back to 327-320 range minimum or still lower. We recommend selling short on breach of 347.50 with the stop of 353 for the target of 327 or lower. In rupee terms sell short Nov Future MCX on breach of 357 with the stop of 363 for the target below 335.




LEAD:- We maintain that it should surpass the high of 2250 & may touch 2300 levels in coming week. We will recommend to hold the long position with tighter stop loss for our second & final targets of 2300 in dollar terms & 105 in rupee terms. Aggressive trader may sell short around 2300 with the stop of 2325 for the target range of 2055-1990.We recommend sell short position in Sept Future MCX on any bounce to 102-103 with the stop of 105 for the target of 92-94.




NICKEL:- Nickel  has made the high of 22955 last week & missed our final target of 23200 narrowly. We recommend selling short at any bounce above the 22500 with the stop of 23000 for the target range of 21200-20700.We recommend a short sell on Sept Future MCX around 1050 with the stop of the 1070 for the target of 977.





ZINC:- Zinc has made the high of 2236 last week & reversed very swiftly on downside. We are looking for the downside correction to end in the range of 2040-1980.We recommend selling short at 2105 with the stop of 2155 for the target range of 2040-1980.In rupee term we recommend a short on Sept Future MCX at any bounce in 99.30-99.70 range with the stop of 100.80 for the target range of 93.00-94.00.


 

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