WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK (06/09/2010)

USD-INR:- Last week it made the high of 47.145 against our expected range of 47.15-47.31 & turned down to close at 46.46.We maintain our same view of last week.It has good support at 46.20 & we will keep the bias positive as long as it is held. On the upside it is likely to face resistance at 47.10 & 47.40.We recommend buying Sept future  MCX on decline  at 46.75 with the stop of 46.65 for the target in the range of 47.05-47.15.

 

EURO-INR:- EUROINR has fallen from 61.5123 to 58.4737 in five waves & it correcting this decline within the range of 58.75-60.40. Since it is close to upper range we expect it to head for side of the range at 58.75 in coming week. We recommend sell short the Sept FUT MCX at 60.10 or above with the stop of 60.25 for the target of 58.90.

 

GBP-INR:- For the initial part of the week we see it declining to test the range of 70.61-71.41.However we do not see it range downside in any case. On the contrary we see it to head towards the 73.50-74.00 level.

 

 

JPY-INR:-  It has formed the rising wedge & is on the verge of break down. We see it heading to 52.00-53.00 range. We recommend selling short above 55.00 with the stop of 55.60 for the target of 52.90 initially & then 51.25.

 

EURO-USD:- Last week it made the high of 1.2899 against our predicted range of 1.2872-1.2902.In our view the corrective move which commenced from the 1.2584 is in terminal stage &  we do not see it extending beyond 1.2920 in any case. In our view it will at least make an attempt to retest 1.2584 in coming weeks. We recommend sell short at 1.2900 with the stop of 1.2925 for the target of 1.2640 in next two weeks.

GBP-USD:- GBP has been declining from 1.5998 & is in the terminal stage of  decline or already completed. However we do not rule out a nominal new low below 1.5323, but a corrective bounce to the1.5650 level is imminent. We recommend buying it on any decline below 1.5350 with the stop of 1.5300 for the target of 1.5600-1.5650 range in next 2-3 weeks.

                                                               

 

 

USD-JPY:- USDJPY has just broken out of the FALLING WEDGE formation. We expect that in next 8 to 13 days it should touch the  86.35 & then 88.00.We recommend going long on any decline below 84.10 with the stop of 83.65 for the initial target of 86.35 & then 88.00.

 

DOLLAR-INDEX:- It has strong support at 82.00.It has also completed a wave pattern at last closing. We expect the bounce in coming week towards the 83.60 or higher.

 

 

 

 

 

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