WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK (06/09/2010)
|
GOLD:- Gold has been rising from 1155.60 to 1256.60 without any substantial correction. At the same time we are of the view that it has completed the five wave pattern on upside & facing the resistance of the all time high of 1266.From the Fibonacci retracement point of view 1231.4 & 1218 are the 25% & 38.2% levels.From the EWT point of view it should come to test the range of 1236-1219.We recommend selling short above 1252 with the stop of 1260 for the target of 1230.In rupee terms sell above 19060 with the stop of 19160 for the target of 18650.
|
|
|
SILVER:- Silver has broken the last four months consolidating range of 19.85-17.20 on upside. From the EWT point of view it has opened up the extension on upside. Under such circumstances the corrections are minimal or shallow in price & much shorter in time duration. Our initial target is 21.5 & then higher. We see 19.70 pull back as an opportunity to buy with the stop of 19.50 for the target of 21.50.In rupee terms buy Dec MCX FUT below 31000 with the stop 30830 for the target of 31800.
CRUDE:- It is about to break down from the inverted flag or pennants pattern. In terms of EWT it has formed the 1-2 & 1-2 pattern. Both have very bearish connotations. On the upside there is resistance at 76.75.We recommend selling short at any bounce with the stop of 77.00 for the target of 64.00 or lower. In rupee terms sell at any bounce above 3480 with the stop of 3535 for the target 3300 or lower.
|
|
|
NATURALGAS:- Natural gas has terminated the larger wave on downside at 3693.The Fibonacci retracement of 25% & 38.25 comes at 4021 & 4195 respectively. From the EWT perspective it should test the range 4029-4091 on upside. We are looking for bounce to 4091 area. We recommend buy at 3939 current market price with the stop of the3810 for the target of 4091 & above. In rupee terms we recommend buy at 183.70 with the stop of the 180.50 for the target of 197.00 & above at Sept MCX FUT. COPPER:- Copper has been rising with the weak momentum from 317.75 as 5th wave. On the last day of the week made the high of the week at 353.45 with the DOJI formation which indicates indecision at top. If it has completed the five wave pattern at 353.45 then it should ideally come back to 328-332 range minimum or still lower. We recommend selling short on breach of 347.50 with the stop of 353 for the target of 332 or lower. In rupee terms sell short on breach of 357 with the stop of 363 for the target below 335.
LEAD:- Last week LEAD made high of 2196 & met all our initial targets. We maintain that it should surpass the high of 2250 & may touch 2300 levels in coming week. We will recommend to hold the long position for our second & final targets of 2300 in dollar terms & 105 in rupee terms.
NICKEL:- Nickel was very close to meet our initial targets last week. However the last days pattern of shooting star may react downside but not below 21300 & then will proceed to meet the final targets of 23200.We recommend to hold the last weeks long positions.
ZINC:- Zinc has made the high of 2196 last week & missed our target by the just 4 points. During the initial part of the week we see a small correction & then heading for the 2250.
|
|
|
|
|


Comments