WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK (23-08-10)
GOLD:- Last week it made the high of the 1239.5 & completed the five wave pattern. The 38.2 & 50% Fibonacci retracements of this 5 wave pattern from the 1155.6 to 1239.5 come at 1207.5 & 1197.6 respectively. At the same the inverted head & shoulder pattern's neckline at 1209 will be the target of pull back from the break out of the pattern. In dollar terms sell with the stop of 1237 for the target below 1210.In rupee terms sell at 18700 with the stop of 12800 for the target range of 18420-18315.

SILVER:- In the accompanying chart of silver we have shown wave counts in red & black colour. The black colour wave counts represents the flat formation & straight targets for the 17.30 or below. The red colour wave counts represents the zigzag correction. In this it is expected to decline first to 17.65 & then bounce back. In dollar terms sell at 18.10 with the stop of the 18.25 for the target of 17.65 or lower. In rupee terms at MCX sell short above 29000 with the stop of 29150 for the target of 28700 & 28350.

CRUDE:- It has either completed or about to complete the five wave pattern on downside from the top of the 82.97.We see a strong probability of it bouncing back to 75.50-76.40 range or higher. Since it is in strong downtrend, a buy call is risky & for aggressive traders only. In dollar terms buy at 73.80 with the stop of 73.20 for the target range of 75.50-76.40.In rupee terms buy at 3480 with the stop of 3460 for the target range of 3565-3595.

NATURALGAS:- It is in the strong downtrend & buying can be injurious to wealth. We are expecting 4380 as strong resistance & 3800 as strong support. However the bounce in present strong downtrend is naturally will be of poor quality. Any bounce above 4270 should be short sold with the stop of 4380 for the targets of 3985,3855 & 3810.In rupee terms sell short at any bounce near to 202 with the stop of the 206 for the target of 191,185 & 180.

COPPER:- Copper has the strong resistance at 333 & equally strong support at 325.Traders should play this trading range with contra trade & in case of any break out on either side should be followed by trend following method. In dollar terms sell short above 332 with the stop of 334 for the target 325 or lower. Similarly in rupee terms sell above 343 with the stop of 346 for the target of 333 or lower.

LEAD:- Last week LEAD made the high of 2160 & started declining to mark the low at 2045.In the coming week we are looking for the bounce to 2080 & then decline again to 1955.We recommend selling short on any bounce to or above 2080 with the stop of 2110 for the target of 1955.In rupee terms sell above 96.30 with the stop of the 97.70 for the target of 92.50.

NICKEL:- Nickel has resistance at 21800 & support at 21000. Traders should play this trading range with contra trade & in case of any break out on either side should be followed by trend following method. In dollar terms sell at any bounce above 21700 with the stop at 21900 for the target of 21000.In rupee terms sell above 1025 with the stop of 1045 for the target of 965. ZINC:- Zinc has made low of 2046.25 & bounce off. We recommend selling short at any bounce above 2080 with the stop of 2100 for the target of 2000 & 1955.In rupee terms sell short at any bounce above 96 with the stop of 96.75 for the target below 94.00.




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