HAS THE NIFTY FORMED AN INTERMEIATE BOTTOM AT 4785 ?

      Last week nifty opened at 4944.30 & went down to register the low of the week at 4786.45.It then rose to mark the high at 5077.25 & finally closed the  week at 5066.55.Thus it gained 135.40 points over the previous week which is 2.70%.

RETROSPECT: - Our neutral bias near the bottom has helped us to change our stand very swiftly. 

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment has improved from the extreme pessimism as the last expiry got over around 5000 & markets are stable above 5000. 

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - Nifty has taken the support or u -turn at the trend line connecting 4538-4675.If we draw the parallel line from the 5180, the tops of 5310 & 5400 falls on this line. This is shown in the chart below. It is an indication of strong upwardly tilted flat or strong complex correction in the formation. The break of such channel has wide ranging & farfetched impacts. However this is not much relevant to the week in consideration.

 

      Talking of the coming week ,the decline from the 5342 to 4786 has been more less looks like a five down with the fifth wave extended as shown in the graph above. Ideally it should bounce to the 5160-5190 range but to be on practical side let us expect it to be 5150.If it returns from this zone then we have the indication that the downtrend in force is continuing & this is just the bear market rally. In case it is able to cross the 5200 decisively then the decline should be considered as corrective wave & main impulse trend is continuing on the upside. The decline from 5206.30 to 4786.45 took 58 hours & the rise has so far completed the 20 hours. For the bull trend to confirm it should cross 5206.30 in next 38 hours which fall in the purview of next week.

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- Last week it has formed the bullish piercing line & indicates that 4785 is an intermediate bottom for some time to come. 

CHART PATTERN:- There is no specific chart pattern during this week. 

OSCILLATORS READING:- The daily RSI,STOCHASTIC & MACD has turned up & indicates the short term rally atleast.The weekly RSI,STOCHASTIC & MACD  have remained the sell mode. 

SECTOR ANALYSIS:- This week we intend to analyse the OIL& GAS SECTOR INDEX OF BSE.This sector all looks to set for the gain of minimum 5% to 10600 from the present level of 10115.

PULSE-READING:- JKD SOUL VOICE SAYS THAT IF YOU ARE PLAIN INVESTOR BOOK PROFIT & TAKE MONEY OF THE TABLE.COME BACK AFTER CELEBRATING THE DIWALI.IF YOU ARE A PROFESSIONAL TRADER PLAY HEDGE SHORT GAME.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:- Keep strict watch on the 4960 for downside & 5205 for upside & follow the break out.