NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK (05/04/2010)

NIFTY  ESTABLISHING CLEAN HIGHER TOP HIGHER BOTTOM PATTERN

      Last week nifty opened at 5283.90 & went up to register the high of the 5329.55.It then declined to mark the low at 5235.15 & finally closed the  week at 5290.50.Thus it gained 8.5 points over the previous week which is just 0.16%.

RETROSPECT: - We are waiting for a dip or good consolidation to enter long.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment has turned bullish with the continuous & consistent flow of FII.However participants are curious as well as cautious for the coming EARNING SEASON.

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - The recent price action has emerged out with the different set of wave counts in the daily chart. First we have drawn a  expanding diagonal  triangle pattern from 3918.75 (the low of 13th July 2009)& this has ended the wave 4 leg at 4675.40 on 8th Feb 2010.Since then it has been unveiling the wave 5 on upside. This has been depicted in the dark green color. Alternatively we have labeled an impulse pattern from 3918.75 to 5181.95(20th Oct,2009).Then we have labeled an irregular flat pattern. This irregular flat has ended at 4675.40 on 8th Feb,2010. This we have marked on the chart with the pink color.

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In both the wave counts from the bottom of 4675 there is an upward wave is unfolding & the structure & characteristics of this rise will provide the further insight into the likely wave trajectory for the coming days. Down below in an 120 min chart we have attempted to analyze the further wave counts & various probabilities. For the coming week it shows that it is likely to rise further a bit more to complete the current wave & then unfold the correction for 5150.

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JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- Last week there was a DOJI formed after the previous week's HANGING MAN in weekly chart.This denotes indecision & moe so when it is standing near the yearly high.We expect it to correct price wise or consolidate time wise before leaping further.

 

CHART PATTERN:- There is a potential threat of DOUBLE TOP FORMATION if it is unable to cross the 5310 decisively & starts descending rapidly.This does not look like to be supported by the STOCHASTIC ,RSI  & MACD.

PULSE-READING:- JKD SOUL VOICE SAYS JUST BE BULLISH AROUND 5225-5200 WITH THE STOP OF 5175 FOR THE TARGET ABOVE 5420 IN THE MONTH OF APRIL.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:- Go long on any dip near to 5250.

 

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