NIFTY  LIKELY TO ENTER CONSOLDATING PHASE

      Last week nifty opened at 5260.95 & went down to register the low of the 5187.05.It then rose to mark the high at 5293.75 & finally closed the  week at 5282.00.Thus it gained 19.20 points over the previous week which is just 0.40%.

RETROSPECT: - We have booked profit on nifty purchase of 5076 at 5261 & holding no position at the moment.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment has turned bullish with the crossing of 5000 as well as no adverse proposals from budget helped to boost the sentiments.This was further boosted due to FII continuous streak of buying figure.

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - The recent price action has emerged out with the different set of wave counts in the daily chart. First we have drawn a  expanding diagonal  triangle pattern from 3918.75 (the low of 13th July 2009)& this has ended the wave 4 leg at 4675.40 on 8th Feb 2010.Since then it has been unveiling the wave 5 on upside. This has been depicted in the dark green color. Alternatively we have labeled an impulse pattern from 3918.75 to 5181.95(20th Oct,2009).Then we have labeled an irregular flat pattern. This irregular flat has ended at 4675.40 on 8th Feb,2010. This we have marked on the chart with the pink color.

In both the wave counts from the bottom of 4675 there is an upward wave is unfolding & the structure & characteristics of this rise will provide the further insight into the likely wave trajectory for the coming days. Down below in an 120 min chart we have attempted to analyze the further wave counts & various probabilities. For the coming week it shows that it is likely to react to 5150-5100 range before making any further move on upside. Speaking more precisely in terms of ELLIOT WAVE THEORY it should come down to 5144-5126 range.

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- Last week there was a HANGING MAN formed in weekly chart.This is a reversal sign.However it has yet to be confirmed by the further price action.Since it has been formed at the previous peak so it should be treated with caution for further bullishness.

CHART PATTERN:- There is a potential threat of DOUBLE TOP FORMATION if it is unable to cross the 5310 decisively & starts descending rapidly.This does not look like to be supported by the STOCHASTIC AT 86,RSI AT 70 & MACD AT +79.

PULSE-READING:- JKD SOUL VOICE SAYS JUST BE BULLISH AROUND 5125-5150 WITH THE STOP OF 5100 FOR THE TARGET ABOVE 5420 IN THE MONTH OF APRIL.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:- One can short above 5290 with the stop of 5355 for the target of 5125-5150 or go long in 5125-5150 band.