JKD VIEWPOINT: WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK (15/03/2010)

WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK (15/03/2010)

*USD-INR:-* Last week it opened at 45.42 & made the high of the 45.805 &then mark the low at 45.25 & finally closed at 45.44.It will be pertinent to note that we had given the upper range of 45.80-45.90 as resistance & 45.15-45.35 as downside support range. For the coming week we are looking for the range bound movement within 45.85-45.20 for most part of the week with the negative bias.
*EURO-INR:-* Last week on Wednesday it hit the bottom of 61.6179 & bounced off swiftly on next two days to 62.86.In the next week initially it will consolidate within the 62.86-61.95 range & then march towards our target of 65.00.
*GBP-INR:-* It has made a fresh bottom of 67.5777 last week & bounced off to 69.12 in later part of the week. In our view it has completed a major downward pattern at 67.5777 & corrective pattern has just begin to unveil. The initial target of this corrective rally is envisaged at 70.65.
*JPY-INR:-* It has entered a strong downtrend with the breach of 51.00.We do not see it crossing 50.50 on up side & down side first support lies at 49.35 & eventually it will reach to 48.65.
*EURO-USD:-* Last week it has broken out of the range of 1.3736-1.3530 & hit the high of 1.3800. In our estimate the target of this rally is 1.4005 if it is able to cross the hurdle of 1.3870.Since it is in downtrend for last two months & oversold it may bounce substantially.
*GBP-USD:-* Against the 1.4784 bottom it has formed the higher bottom of 1.4873.At the same time it has crossed the previous peak of 1.5196 & made the high of 1.5217. We are estimating the target of 1.5420-1.5430 initially & will further fine tuned the next week.
*USD-JPY:-* It has the good support at 89.50-89.80 range. We expect a corrective bounce to emerge from this level which should ideally test the 92.00-92.25 levels in coming weeks.
*DOLLAR-INDEX:-* It has formed the intermediate term top at 81.42 & entered the corrective declining mode. We do not see any bounce above 80.90 & downside 78.90 & 78.15 are good supports.