NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK (15/03/2010)

NIFTY FACES NEXT RESISTANCE AT 5200-5240.

      Last week nifty opened at 5092.15 & went down to register the low of the 502.05.It then rose to mark the high at 5158.10 & finally closed the  week at 5137.00.Thus it gained 49.30 points over the previous week which is just 1.00%.

RETROSPECT: - We are holding the long position of nifty from 5076 with the stop of 5020 for the target above 5150.We have now revised the stop to 5100.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment has received the sigh of relief as almost all the major events & uncertainties are behind & discounted.Participants are now looking forward to the direction of move.Probably the direction of the move is up as indicated by last week's price action.

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - The recent price action has emerged out with the different set of wave counts in the daily chart. First we have drawn a diagonal pattern from 3918.75 (the low of 13th July 2009)& this has ended at 5310.85 on 6th Jan 2010.Since then it has been unveiling the impulse pattern on downside. This has been depicted in the dark green color. Alternatively we have labeled an impulse pattern from 3918.75 to 5181.95(20th Oct,2009).Then we are looking at the unfolding of an irregular flat pattern. This irregular flat has ended at 4675.40 on 8th Feb,2010. This we have marked on the chart with the pink color.

            In both the wave counts from the top of 5310.85 there are five wave counts at 4675.40 & took 22 working days. For the IRREGULAR FLAT wave count to be valid the post pattern behavior dictates that 5310.85 should be retraced 100% or more in less than or equal to 22 days .It has already completed the 17 days. However it can still make up, the probability is receding. According to our DIAGONAL WAVE COUNT it should unveil a zigzag correction. It has unfolded the wave A of zigzag at 4675.40 & wave B is ongoing. In this case it should not cross 5070, for the zigzag pattern to be valid. We have to eliminate this wave count as nifty has crossed the 5070.Therefore we have to presume that a new impulse wave is unveiling from 4675.40.The intraday wave count of the same from 4675.40 is given below.Your browser may not support display of this image.


 



JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:-
There are some small body candle formation which indicates some more consolidation prior to further up move. 

CHART PATTERN:- There is no specific pattern available at the moment.

PULSE-READING:- JKD SOUL VOICE SAYS JUST BE BULLISH ABOVE THE 5070 WITH THE STOP OF 5020.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:- Hold the long position of 5070 with the stop of the 5020 for the target of 5240.

 

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