JKD VIEWPOINT: WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK (02/03/2010)

WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK (02/03/2010)

*USD-INR:-* It has strong support at 45.95 & it has tested four times. On the up move it has the initial resistance at 46.40-46.45 level & final resistance at 46.80-46.90.We are of the view that it will cross 46.40 & attempt to test the 46.80 level.
*EURO-INR:-* It has declined from 70.50 to 62.00 & still there is no sign of recovery visible in terms of momentum or corrective bounce. We are expecting in the current corrective rally to test the 63.52 & if crossed decisively then only see it testing the 64.45.However still the main trend remains down.
*GBP-INR:-* In our view it has not yet completed the down move. On the contrary we believe that the down move may get accelerated on down side & do not see any support emerging before 67.55-66.95 range is hit.
*JPY-INR:-* It has strong support at 0.5100 & we do not see it breaching in near future. We are of the view that it is headed for 0.5400 with intermittent corrections.
*EURO-USD:-* It has been declining within a down ward channel & found support at 1.3450 level. Theoretically the corrective rally should emerge but the momentum is feeble that it will hardly test the 1.3800 level. A decisive breach above the 1.3800 will take it to 1.4000 & higher levels. We are inclined to believe that it will breach 1.345 & find the support in 1.3150-1.3200 range.
*GBP-USD:-* It is in accelerated terminal mode of decline. We expect this to find the support at 1.4850 as this is the 61.8% level of the 1.3504 -1.7043.From this levels a corrective rally is expected.
*USD-JPY:-* It has the good support at 88.50-89.00 range. We expect a corrective bounce to emerge from this level which should ideally test the 92.00-93.00 levels in coming 2-3 weeks.
*DOLLAR-INDEX:-* It is in the process of making an intermediate top in the 81.40-82.00 range. We are expecting a corrective decline to 79.50-78.80 range from there on.