WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTOOK (22/02/2010)
USD-INR:- On the expected line it made the low of 45.85 against our support of 45.75.It made the high of 46.49.For the coming week we are of the view that it will make a failure attempt to test the high of 46.90-47.10 & then react back towards the 45.75.
EURO-INR:- The ferocious decline from 70.30 seems to be over at 61.93 & some sign of swing reversal has been visible .In our view it will not breach the 62.00 level & will attempt to head towards the 64.40.
GBP-INR:- In our view it has terminated a major pattern on downside at 71.01 & we are expecting at least corrective move on upside towards 75+ range in next 3to 4 weeks.
JPY-INR:- It has strong support at 0.505 & we do not see it breaching in near future. At the same time it has strong resistance at 51.80.We are of the view that it has more chances of attempting to head towards 51.70 rather then declining further.
EURO-USD:- The declining streak since 1.4580 has in all probabilities has ended at 1.3444.In our view it is now poised to bounce back to 1.3880-1.4010 range in coming 2-3 weeks.
GBP-USD:- It has made the low of 1.5348 against our expectation of 1.5250. Since it bounced off very swiftly from 1.5348 we are of the view that it has commenced the corrective rally heading for the 1.57-1.58 range.
USD-JPY:- In our view it is in sideways with mild positive bias & has a good support at 90.50.We are of the view that it may attempt to test the 90.50 & then rises to 93.50+ zone.
DOLLAR-INDEX:- In chart below of 8 hr on Dollar index there is five wave upside termination of five wave pattern at 81.43 with the reliable reversible EVENING STAR Japanese candlestick pattern. This is again accompanied by the negative divergences in RSI as well as stochastic indicator. This implies that it will decline & will find first support at 79.60.


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