Last week nifty opened at 4882.05 & went up to register the high of the 4951.15.It then declined to mark the low at 4692.35 & finally closed the  week at 4718.65.Thus it lost 163.45 points over the previous week which is more than 3.5%.

RETROSPECT: - We are holding the short position of 5100with the stop of 5150.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment is certainly pessimistic with utter confusion.Most of the uncertainties are behind us like earning season, RBI's credit policy & others except the BUDGET.However the fear of Europeaon crisis has aggravated the selling from FII & sentiment has taken strong beating that even pre budget rally has taken back seat.

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - As explained in our last issue a major upside pattern has terminated at 5310 & a downward pattern has been unfolding since 6th Jan 2010 onwards. It has just completed wave 1,2 & 3 of minor degree on downside & has commenced the wave 4 on upside. We expect this to come to 4966 to 5028 zone. Time duration of this is expected to be 2 weeks & by nature a flat. Simply stating we expect market to remain range bound in 4800-5050 for some more time to come.

      
The same wave count & the EWT logic we have depicted below in hourly chart for the benefit of the intraday traders. We do not see the bounce to cross the 4830 levels & start descending towards the 4538.

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- Last  few weeks pattern has worked out as the EVENING STAR,a reliable Japanese candlestick pattern.A sharp decline has followed the pattern in the last two weeks.However the last few days have exhibited the bearish red candles without any specific pattern.But the implications are bearish.

CHART PATTERN:- There is an INVERTED FLAG formation has emrged on the chart  & this has serious bearish implications.

PULSE-READING:- JKD  TIME CYCLE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL FALL FOR NEXT TWO WEEKS & THEN FOLLOWED BY EQUALLY SHARPE  & SWIFT RISE.

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:- Sell at every rise above 4850 with the stop of 4920.