NIFTY FACES STIFF RESISTANCE AT 5182. 

Last week market opened at 4942.25 which itself wad the low of the week & went up to 5181.00 to mark the high of the week.Finally closed the week at 5108.90.Thus it gained 167.15 points during the week over previous week’s closing.This is approximately 3.3% gain in value. 

RETROSPECT: - Last week our short position  of nifty was stopped out at 5045.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment has been cautious with bearish tilt. 

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - The stupendous surge from 3918.75 has compelled us to conclude that the new wave has started unfolding.Therefore now we will concentrate our efforts to analyze the wave count from the low 3918.75 of 13th July 2009.At 4731.45 top on 4th Aug,2009 it has completed wave 1 or wave {A} as five wave upside sequence.Similarly it has completed a flat pattern at 4353.45 on 19th Aug,2009 & in accordance with the previous labelling it will be labelled as wave 2 or wave {B}.From 4353.45 it has unfolded the third leg of the rise till 5181.95 on 20th Oct,2009.Accordingly we have labelled this as wave 3 or wave {C} of the zizgzag.

 
 

From the top of the 5181.95 it has declined to 4538.50 in 10 trading sessions.However the internal wave structure of this decline was ambiguous & we could not say with certainty whether it was in three wave or five wave.The subsequent rise from 4538.50 had been sluggish in comparision to decline & could not cross the 5182 in 22 trading sessions..This leads us to three probable wave scenario.

(1)The maroon color wave count suggests the unfolding of wave 3 on downside below 4538.

(2)At 5181 the terminal imulse failure has occured & should very quickly retrace the whole of the terminal imulse shown in green color on chart.

(3)At 5181 the 4-B  of terminal imulse has terminated & wave 4 C should unfold now.This has been shown in blue color on chart.We see this reaching near 4538 & as most probable wave count. 

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- In the daily chart there are two long legged Dojis & indicates the short term top formation.In the weekly chart there is long MORUBOZU on upside & indicates upside move.This contradiction may not allow to reach any conclusion. 
 
 

CHART PATTERN:- There is no specific chart pattern is under formation.. 

PULSE-READING:- JKD  soul voice says that be bullish above 5182 & bearish below 5075. 

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:- Short nifty with the stop of 5165for the initial target of 4800 & lower. 

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