NIFTY LOOKS TO BE TANGLED WITHIN 4860-4600 RANGE. 

Last week market opened at 4712.25 & went down to 4538.50 to mark the low of the week.It then continued to rise to register the high of the week at 4836.20 & finally closed the week at 4796.15.Thus it lgained 84.45 points during the week over previous week’s closing.This is approximately 1.7% swelling in value. 

RETROSPECT: - Last week we had said that below 4650 market is bearish.It breached 4650 & made the low of 4538.50.However it recaptured the 4650 on the next day implying the false break out & swiftly surge ahead.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment remains largely bearish eventhogh the 3days out of the 4days last week market was positive. 

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - The stupendous surge from 3918.75 has compelled us to conclude that the new wave has started unfolding.Therefore now we will concentrate our efforts to analyze the wave count from the low 3918.75 of 13th July 2009.At 4731.45 top on 4th Aug,2009 it has completed wave 1 or wave {A} as five wave upside sequence.Similarly it has completed a flat pattern at 4353.45 on 19th Aug,2009 & in accordance with the previous labelling it will be labelled as wave 2 or wave {B}.From 4353.45 it has unfolded the third leg of the rise till 5181.95 on 20th Oct,2009.Accordingly we have labelled this as wave 3 or wave {C} of the zizgzag.


 

From the top of the 5181.95 it has been declining for the last 13 days & registerd the low of 4538.50.So far there are no symptoms available for rejection of either of these bullish & bearish wave counts.The bullish wave count has been shown in the black color & bearish in maroon color.The 4860 -4600 is neutral range & we are of the view eithe side breach will decide the trend.However we are of the view that market is more likely remain within the for the coming week & may offer break out only later.  

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- Last week it has formed the INVERTED HAMMER & as long as nifty sustains above the 4712 level this pattern will be valid.However for this to get confirmed it should form the white candle.

CHART PATTERN:- The INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDER as well as ASCENDING TRIANGLE pattern formed & broken out are still valid  as the recent decline to 4538.5 can be called as pull back as it has swiftly pulled up. 

PULSE-READING:- JKD  soul voice says that buy above 4860 & sell below 4612 like ROBOT without using your brain or logic.          

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:- We advise to watch the breach of 4860 or 4612 on either side to act with the other side as the stop. 

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This Newsletter is an expression of Technical Analysis. It is NOT a market prediction. It is NOT an advisory or suggestion to buy or sell any types of securities. This is an educational and learning exercise, only to share our methods of technical analysis. Trading and Investing MUST always be done with prudent money management and use of stop losses. One Bad trade can ruin the trader, so always keep risk low. IF you do not agree with the statements mentioned herein, please close this document, do not proceed further, do not read the Newsletter.