WEEKLY COMMODITY OUTLOOK (20/10/09)
GOLD:- Gold has broken out of a large triangle pattern extending from june 09 to sep 09. Last week
there was an evening star candlestick pattern which indicates selling pressure . The strong rally from October start is of 97 points and a correction of 38.2 % comes at 1032 levels where some support may come. Hence Gold can be bought at 1032 levels with 1020 as the stoploss. Gold is expected to reach levels of 1100 from here on.
SILVER:- Last week Silver gave a bearish engulfing pattern and the rally could not extend much beyond its earlier highs and caused a divergence in rsi . The past rally from mid july till current is of 5 points and hence the correction can be expected to retrace atleats 38.2 % which will take silver to 16 which also was its earlier lows. Hence we recommend selling silver at current levels for the target of 16 and 18 as the SL.
CRUDE:- Last week crude broke above its previous high with strong momentum, the current rally was even sharper than the earlier rally in july and august with less correction in between. Crude is now trading at around 78 which is near to upper end of the channel drawn . Also the last two days have shown weakening of the rally with a spinning top. This suggest lack of buying at current levels and a corrrection till 75 can be expected which is a 38.2 % retracement of the current rally in october. Thus we expect 74 to be the appropriate support level.



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