FLIRTING OF NIFTY WITH 5000 SHOULD BE OVER THIS WEEK. 

Last week market opened at 5077 & this itself was the HIGH of the week.It then continued to decline to register the low of week at 4921.05 & finally closed the week at 4934.55.Thus it lost 148.85 points during the week over previous week’s closing.This is approximately 3.0% erosion in value. 

RETROSPECT: - We are holding the nifty long of 4440 with the stop of 4400 after the hit of the two whipsaw stoplosses.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment jubiliant & bullish.However the fun -fare & bull roar is missing as it lacks the momentum.This slow & steady rise is casting the shadow of doubt but it is good for long run as any runaway rise gets corrected equally fast.However the massive inflow of FII during last couple of weeks should show it's fireworks sooner than later.Many emerging markets like Russia,Thailand & Phillipines are on the verge of upward break out & should impact the sentiments positively. 

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - The stupendous surge from 3918.75 has compelled us to conclude that the new impulse wave has started unfolding.Therefore now we will concentrate our efforts to analyze the wave count from the low 3918.75 of 13th July 2009.At 4731.45 top on 4th Aug,2009 it has completed wave 1 as five wave upside sequence.Similarly it has completed a flat pattern at 4353.45 on 19th Aug,2009 & in accordance with the previous labelling it will be labelled as wave 2.Since then it has been unfolding the third leg on upside which is yet to be completed.We have labelled the internal wave count in daily chart below but more dtailed view is presnted in the intraday chart of nifty .

In the hourly chart drawn below we have shown the internal wave count.As per this wave count we are expecting nifty to bounce back to 5040-5080 range & then start declining again towards 4950-4920.This will complete the wave (4).From there we expect the resumption of wave (5).

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- There is no significant caandle pattern to negate or augment the previous patters. 

CHART PATTERN:- In the weekly chart inverted head & shoulder pattern & ascending triangle patterns have just broken out & in the midst of pull back process.  
 

PULSE-READING:- JKD  soul voice says that nifty will trade at 52 week high .on DIWALI MUHURAAT day & it will be really fun fare for market participants. 

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-

Our outlook is of range bound movement within 4900-5100 during the coming truncated week. 

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This Newsletter is an expression of Technical Analysis. It is NOT a market prediction. It is NOT an advisory or suggestion to buy or sell any types of securities. This is an educational and learning exercise, only to share our methods of technical analysis. Trading and Investing MUST always be done with prudent money management and use of stop losses. One Bad trade can ruin the trader, so always keep risk low. IF you do not agree with the statements mentioned herein, please close this document, do not proceed further, do not read the Newsletter.