FLIRTING OF NIFTY WITH 5000 MAY CONTINUE FOR A WEEK? 

Last week market opened at 4959.15 & this itself was the low of the week.It then continued to rise to register the high of week at 5110.50 & finally closed the week at 5057.05.Thus it gained 98.10 points during the week over previous week’s closing.This is approximately 2.0% gain in value. 

RETROSPECT: - We are holding the nifty long of 4440 with the stop of 4400 after the hit of the two whipsaw stoplosses.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment jubiliant & bullish.However the fun -fare & bull roar is missing as it lacks the momentum.This slow & steady rise is casting the shadow of doubt but it is good for long run as any runaway rise gets corrected equally fast.However the massive inflow of FII during last couple of weeks should show it's fireworks sooner than later. 

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - The stupendous surge from 3918.75 has compelled us to conclude that the new impuse wave has started unfolding.Therefore now we will concentrate our efforts to analyze the wave count from the low 3918.75 of 13th July 2009.At 4731.45 top on 4th Aug,2009 it has completed wave 1 as five wave upside sequence.Similarly it has completed a flat pattern at 4353.45 on 19th Aug,2009 & in accordance with the previous labelling it will be labelled as wave 2.Since then it has been unfolding the third leg on upside which is yet to be completed.We have labelled the internal wave count in daily chart below but more dtailed view is presnted in the intraday chart of nifty .

In the hourly chart drawn below we have shown the internal wave count.As per this wave count we are expecting a one more high above 5110 which shall not cross 5155. It is then likely to react to 4920-4930.This is our preferred wave count & drawn in blue color.However in such minor degree wave count there may be some error in wave count it might would have completed the wave count at 5110 As long as this correction remains above 4905 & does not violate blue color lower channel line the uptrend should be presumed to be intact.Any violation of lower trendline of blue color channel should be considered as serious threat to the bullish upward wave count.

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- There was a STRONG WHITE CANDLE pattern last week in weekly chart.This denotes the strength of the upmove. 

CHART PATTERN:- In the weekly chart inverted head & shoulder pattern & ascending triangle patterns have just broken out & in the midst of pull back process.  
 

PULSE-READING:- JKD  soul voice says that nifty will oscillate in 4900-5100 range. 

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-

Our outlook is of range bound movement within 4900-5100 during the coming truncated week.