WILL NIFTY'S KISS OF 5000 WILL CONVERT INTO CROSS OVER? 

Last week market opened at 4830.35 & went down to 4786.25 to mark the low of the week.It then continued to rise to register the high of week at 5003.05 & finally closed the week at 4976.05.Thus it gained 146.50 points during the week over previous week’s closing.This is approximately 3.0% swelling in value. 

RETROSPECT: - We are holding the nifty long of 4440 with the stop of 4400 after the hit of the two whipsaw stoplosses.

SENTIMENTS: - Market sentiment jubiliant & bullish.However the fun -fare & bull roar is missing as it lacks the momentum & could not close above 5000.This slow & steady rise is casting the shadow of doubt but it is good for long run as any runaway rise gets corrected equally fast. 

ELLIOT WAVE THEORY: - The stupendous surge from 3918.75 has compelled us to conclude that the new impuse wave has started unfolding.Therefore now we will concentrate our efforts to analyze the wave count from the low 3918.75 of 13th July 2009.At 4731.45 top on 4th Aug,2009 it has completed wave 1 or A as five wave upside sequence.Similarly it has completed a flat pattern at 4353.45 on 19th Aug,2009 & in accordance with the previous labelling it will be labelled as wave 2 or B.We are expecting the third leg on upside to unfold.All projections & rational estimates of this   third leg leads us to the view that nifty will reach in 5476 to 5668 between the 17th Sept to 24th Sept,2009 & these are amply demonstrated in the chart accompanied.

It may be noted from the chart that the trajectory drawn is running at higher momentum & lesser time whereas nifty is moving with the lower momentum & longer time.This can be inferrred in two opposite ways.Firstly it is tired & distributing it.This view is not supported by the rising trendlines as well as channels since theirr base line is not breached or violated.Secondly the wave in motion is further extetending & sub dividing for the still higher targets.The pick up in the momentum will come at later stage of the wave.We would stick to second probability as long as nifty respects the rising trendlines & channels. 
 

JAPANESE CANDLESTICK:- There is no specific pattern at this juncture.  

CHART PATTERN:- In the weekly chart inverted head & shoulder pattern & ascending triangle patterns have just broken out & in the midst of pull back process.We are expecting the real fire work to witness in coming weeks. 
 
 
 

PULSE-READING:- JKD  soul voice says that market may jerk in 4780-4850 area for a while but this time it will surpass the 5000 level. 

OUTLOOK & STRATEGY:-

Our outlook is of 5476 to 5668 & may extend in the first half of the OCT,2009.We therefore recommend holding the nifty long & may add any dip or major correction during the ride for the target of 5500. 

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This Newsletter is an expression of Technical Analysis. It is NOT a market prediction. It is NOT an advisory or suggestion to buy or sell any types of securities. This is an educational and learning exercise, only to share our methods of technical analysis. Trading and Investing MUST always be done with prudent money management and use of stop losses. One Bad trade can ruin the trader, so always keep risk low. IF you do not agree with the statements mentioned herein, please close this document, do not proceed further, do not read the Newsletter.