WEEKLY MCX-SX CURRENCY OUTLOOK (10/08/09)
USD-INR:-
Last week USD-INR opened at 47.75 & went up to register the high at 48.05.It then continuously declined to mark the low of week at 47.15 & finally closed the week at 47.68.Thus INR becomes stronger by 0.07 compared to previous week’s closing & gained 0.015%.It is pertinent to note that we had given the resistance 48.35 & support at 47.10 & it made the high of 48.05 & low of 47.15 We are of the view that it will further decline & make a new low below 46.71.For the current week our assessment is that the decline below 47.10 will find the support at 46.60 & 48.05 is resistanc for any upmove.
EURO-USD:-Last week we had expected it to make an attempt to cross 1.4338 & touch the 1.44-1.45range & on the downside it will not breach the 1.410.In reality it opened the week at 1.4255 & went up to register the high of the 1.4449 & went down to mark the low of week at 1.4154 & finally closed the week at 1.4188. The vertical drop from the 1.4449 suggests that a intermediate term top is formed & we may see a substantial downside to 1.32 over 2 to 3 months period.For the coming week we see a major resistance at 1.4240 on upside.On the downside there are good support at 1.4006,1.3832 & 1.3749.We do not foresee these to be violated in coming week eventually they will be breached.
GBP-USD:-
Last week we did not see this crossing 1.68 -1.685 range & on the contrary we were expecting a strong downmove to 1.60-1.61 once the current momentum dies down.However it made a high of 1.7043 & started declining rapidly.We maintain our downside target of 1.60-1.61 in intermediate term.For the coming week we see a major resistance at 1.6830 on upside & on the downside there lies the support at at 1.6471 & 1.6352.
USD-JPY:-
Last week we did not expect it to cross 96.00 on upside but it breached upside & made the high of the 97.78. We are of the view that the current upsurge will find resistance near 101.5 only.On the upside there are minor resistances at 98.90 & 99.75 & we feel that the current momentum will easily take them out.On the downside there lies a good support in the range of 96.50-96.75.


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