WEEKLY MCX-SX CURRENCY REPORT (15/06/09)

USD-INR:- 

Last week USD INR opened at 47.317 &went down till 47.10 to mark as low of the week. It then continued to rise till 47.775 to mark the high of the week & finally closed the week at 47.610. In terms of ELLIOT WAVE THEORY it is correcting in the form of a zigzag. Within this zigzag it has completed the wave {A}&{B}.Within wave {C}it has completed wave (3) & wave (4) is underway. We expect this wave (4) to be either flat or triangle. In either case it has to hit a new low below 46.715 to complete wave (5) & consequently wave {C}& thereby the whole of zigzag. However we do not see this breaching 46.40.Hence selling short may not fetch any return & traders are compelled to wait for it to bottom out & then go long.

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EURO-USD:-

In the intermediate term it is heading for the 1.47-1.50 range. Last week we had stated that it may go down further to 1.3790 levels but not likely to breach 1.3740.However on upside we do not see it crossing 1.4300 for another two weeks. In reality it formed the low of 1.3806 & made the high of 1.4177.For the coming week we expect a false & failure attempt to cross the 1.4333 top & then it will decline towards the 1.38-1.35 range. 
 

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GBP-USD:-

Last week we had expected it to surge 1.63 at best & on downside it may start the downward journey towards 1.54-1.53.In reality it made the high of 1.6621 & did not show any intention to decline. We are of the view that in coming week it may bounce to max 1.68 & commence the journey towards the 1.58.

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USD-JPY:-

In the intermediate terms we are looking for 90.Last week we had expected it to make a failure attempt to cross the 99.47 but it would not be able to cross the same. In reality it touched the high of 98.55 but could not cross the 99.47. As it has been clinging on to the upper side it may make failure to surge pass the 99.47 & the decline towards the 95 range.

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