WEEKLY MCX-SX CURRENCY REPORT (08/06/09)

USD/INR

Last week USD INR JUNE series opened at 47.13 &went down to46.8575 to mark as low of the week. It then continued to rise till 47.4150 to mark the high of the week & finally closed the week at 47.2175.Volumes have been rising since the election results are announced. In terms of ELLIOT WAVE THEORY it is correcting in the form of a zigzag. Within this zigzag it has completed the wave {A}&{B}.Within wave {C}it has completed wave (3) & wave (4) is underway. We expect this wave (4) to be either flat or triangle. In either case it has to hit a new low below 46.80 complete wave (5) & consequently wave {C}& thereby the whole of zigzag. However we do not see this breaching 46.60.Hence selling short may not fetch any return & traders are compelled to wait for it to bottom out & then go long.
 


EURO/USD

In the intermediate term it is heading for the 1.47-1.50 range. Last week we had stated that it will not breach 1.4050 on downside & may touch the 1.425-1.44 range. Actually it made the high of the 1.4338 & low of 1.3933.For the coming week our expectation is that it may go down further to 1.3790 level but not likely to breach 1.3740.However on upside we do not see it crossing 1.4300 for another two weeks.Therefore traders may avail the trading range advantage in 1.38 to 1.43 range.

 

GBP/USD
Last week we had expected it to surge 1.63 at best & on downside it may touch the 1.58-1.59 level. In fact it surged to the level of 1.662 & reacted to make the low of 1.594.During the coming week we expect it to correct on upside to 1.63 & start the downward journey towards 1.54-1.53.
 


USD/JPY

In the intermediate terms we are looking for 90.However for last two weeks it is surging on upside & we expect this surge to continue for the initial part of the week which may go near to 99.74 but will not cross. After making failure attempts to 99.47 it will react & may head downside for 94.00.

 

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